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Ken McElroy Show

Is the Economy Falling Apart? The The Alarming Signs About Unemployment

Ken McElroy Show

Ken McElroy

Business, Investing, Education, Business News, News

4.8692 Ratings

🗓️ 17 September 2024

⏱️ 37 minutes

🧾️ Download transcript

Summary

Ken and Danille McElroy explore the current state of the economy, focusing on the rising unemployment rate and its broader implications. They break down the Sahm Rule, discuss the impact of layoffs, and analyze the potential effects on spending, debt, and the overall economic outlook.

To see the charts referenced in this live stream replay, follow this link: https://bit.ly/3MOVja4

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ABOUT KEN: Ken is the author of the bestselling books The ABC’s of Real Estate Investing, The Advanced Guide to Real Estate Investing, and The ABC’s of Property Management. With over two decades of experience in real estate investing, Ken McElroy is passionate about sharing the good life by helping real estate investors grow and prosper. This podcast is a place for Ken to discuss numerous topics connected to real estate investing, including finance, budgeting, the entrepreneur mindset, and creating passive income. Ken offers a wealth of personal experiences, practical advice, success stories, and even some informative setbacks, all presented here to educate and inspire. Whether you’re a new or seasoned investor, the information and resources on this channel will set you on a path where you and your investments can thrive.
 
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Transcript

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0:00.0

Right now, the economy seems to be falling apart.

0:03.5

Things feel uneasy, and we keep being told things are good.

0:06.8

But it's interesting right now, you know, because what we do know is unemployment is going

0:11.9

up, how much it's going up and what it's at.

0:15.0

That's debatable, depending on what dad.

0:17.8

I got to tell you something really funny.

0:18.9

So I discovered the SOM rule, S-A-H-M,

0:23.4

who is an economist for the Fed. But before we go on the chart, Jerry, I text George Gammon.

0:28.3

I mean, hey, George, do you follow the Psalm rule? He text me back. Do you track rents? Like,

0:35.2

it's so obvious to him, but I started following this I think

0:39.2

it's important Jerry if you could pull that up real quick now this is not

0:43.3

necessarily you know it's just an indicator I think is what I'm trying to say

0:49.9

here but the basically the Psalm rule is around the unemployment rate which we're

0:53.7

going to talk a lot about.

0:55.7

And it's the three-month moving average of the U.S. employment is half a percentage point or more

1:02.0

above the lowest three-month average percentage period for the last 12 months.

1:07.1

So that's what it is.

1:07.8

Now, I just want you guys to take a look at that far right.

1:11.2

Now, what I really want you to look at is when it started going up, let's go back to 1970,

1:18.6

you know, call it 73, 80s, the 90s in the late 2000s, of course in 2008.

1:26.6

Obviously, the big spike is the pandemic, which we all know.

1:30.1

And so I don't know if you want to call that an anomaly or whatever, but it's probably

...

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