4.8 • 692 Ratings
🗓️ 17 September 2024
⏱️ 37 minutes
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0:00.0 | Right now, the economy seems to be falling apart. |
0:03.5 | Things feel uneasy, and we keep being told things are good. |
0:06.8 | But it's interesting right now, you know, because what we do know is unemployment is going |
0:11.9 | up, how much it's going up and what it's at. |
0:15.0 | That's debatable, depending on what dad. |
0:17.8 | I got to tell you something really funny. |
0:18.9 | So I discovered the SOM rule, S-A-H-M, |
0:23.4 | who is an economist for the Fed. But before we go on the chart, Jerry, I text George Gammon. |
0:28.3 | I mean, hey, George, do you follow the Psalm rule? He text me back. Do you track rents? Like, |
0:35.2 | it's so obvious to him, but I started following this I think |
0:39.2 | it's important Jerry if you could pull that up real quick now this is not |
0:43.3 | necessarily you know it's just an indicator I think is what I'm trying to say |
0:49.9 | here but the basically the Psalm rule is around the unemployment rate which we're |
0:53.7 | going to talk a lot about. |
0:55.7 | And it's the three-month moving average of the U.S. employment is half a percentage point or more |
1:02.0 | above the lowest three-month average percentage period for the last 12 months. |
1:07.1 | So that's what it is. |
1:07.8 | Now, I just want you guys to take a look at that far right. |
1:11.2 | Now, what I really want you to look at is when it started going up, let's go back to 1970, |
1:18.6 | you know, call it 73, 80s, the 90s in the late 2000s, of course in 2008. |
1:26.6 | Obviously, the big spike is the pandemic, which we all know. |
1:30.1 | And so I don't know if you want to call that an anomaly or whatever, but it's probably |
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