Is Donald Trump Winning the Election?
Lost Debate
The Branch
4.6 • 607 Ratings
🗓️ 21 October 2024
⏱️ 48 minutes
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| 0:00.0 | Welcome to The Lost Debate, a show for Politically Ecclectics. |
| 0:03.1 | I'm Robbie Gupta and today we welcome on Russell Shaw, who is the head of school at Georgetown Day School. |
| 0:09.4 | And I can't remember the last time, if ever, I had on a private school leader. |
| 0:14.7 | I've had so many public K to 12 leaders, whether it's charter or a traditional public school. |
| 0:19.7 | But I wanted to talk to somebody who has, |
| 0:21.8 | you know, different kind of students, different kind of challenges. And we talk about a lot, you know, |
| 0:26.6 | for all parents out there, like how to prepare your kid to get into elite colleges, the changing |
| 0:31.8 | nature of high school, use of technology, artificial intelligence, independence. Like, this is |
| 0:37.4 | very much an extension of the |
| 0:38.6 | Lenora-Skinese conversation, et cetera. So we'll get to that. But before I do, let's talk about |
| 0:44.9 | early vote. I've seen so many claims out there about what the early vote has meant so far in this |
| 0:50.8 | election. And I think, honestly, there's just a lot of exaggerations, inappropriate use of |
| 0:56.1 | data. But in some cases, people are nailing the trend right. And let me give a couple of caveats as we |
| 1:01.5 | start. Number one, as Harry Anton said, there's a graveyard of people out there trying to predict |
| 1:05.8 | the eventual result in election based on early vote. But the early vote can tell us something about |
| 1:11.5 | what's going on here. And I mentioned this, I think, a week or two ago, but the early, |
| 1:17.3 | the early vote should be different this time in 2024 than it was in 2020. We were in a middle of a |
| 1:23.0 | pandemic last time. Trump was telling his people not to turn out. So the combination of those two things, |
| 1:28.3 | meaning the differences between how Democrats and Republicans treated the pandemic, combined with |
| 1:32.2 | what Trump was saying, depressed early vote and absentee balloting, which we kind of roll in together |
| 1:37.4 | with early vote, mail-in balloting, et cetera. It depressed GOP use of those tools. Some people think that might have contributed to Trump's |
| 1:47.3 | loss. So we'll keep that in mind as we analyze trends. You should not expect the trends to be the |
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