Is China's bubble finally about to pop? A conversation with Bloomberg Chief Economist Tom Orlik

Sinica Podcast

Kaiser Kuo

Culture, China News, Hangzhou, Chinese, International Relations, Chongqing, Beijing, Sichuan, Currentaffairs, China, Politics, Chengdu, Shanghai, Guangzhou, China Economy, News, China Politics, Business, Film, Shenzhen

4.8 • 676 Ratings

🗓️ 25 August 2022

⏱️ 56 minutes

🔗️ Recording | iTunes | RSS

🧾️ Download transcript

Summary

This week on the Sinica Podcast, Kaiser and Jeremy welcome back Tom Orlik, Bloomberg's chief economist and author of the book China: The Bubble that Never Pops. Ahead of the release of the new, updated edition of his book, we ask him about all that has changed in the two-and-a-half years since the publication of the first edition — and whether the real estate crisis, the Common Prosperity agenda, China's fraying foreign relations, or the COVID lockdowns are finally going to bring about the crash long predicted by the "China bears."

4:40 – Tom offers a succinct summary of the chief arguments in the first edition of China: The Bubble that Never Pops

8:05 – Is China looking quite as clever as it was four months ago?

11:08 – The Chinese economy’s great COVID shutdown stress test

13:53 – China’s stimulus response

20:22 – The future of the Common Prosperity agenda

25:49 – China’s push for tech self-sufficiency

33:00 – China’s present real estate crisis

38:15 – Xi Jinping’s priorities: triage for the ailing Chinese economy

44:00 – How bad will the damage be from China’s 2022 lockdowns?

A complete transcript of this podcast is available at TheChinaProject.com.

Recommendations:

Jeremy: The Parker series,: crime fiction by Richard Stark, pen name of Donald E. Westlake

Tom: Surveillance State by Josh Chin and Liza Lin; and Coalitions of the Weak by Victor Shih

Kaiser: The TV drama from Hulu, The Bear

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Transcript

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0:00.0	Welcome to the Cineka podcast, a weekly discussion of current affairs in China produced in partnership with the China Project.
0:15.7	That's right. From September 1st, as you hopefully already know, we are changing our name from SubChina to The China Project.
0:23.5	Subscribe to Access from the China Project to get access to not only our great daily newsletter,
0:28.7	but all the original writing on our website at theChinaproject.com.
0:32.8	We've got reported stories, essays, and editorials, great explainers, and trackers, regular
0:38.3	columns, and of course, a growing library of podcasts.
0:42.3	We cover everything from China's fraught foreign relations to its ingenious entrepreneurs,
0:46.9	from the ongoing repression of Uyghurs and other Muslim peoples in China's Xinjiang region,
0:51.5	to Beijing's ambitious plans to shift the Chinese economy onto a post-carbon
0:56.9	footing. It's a feast of business, political, and cultural news about a nation that is
1:03.0	reshaping the world. We cover China with neither fear nor favor. I'm Kaiser Guo, coming to you
1:09.2	from Chapel Hill, North Carolina. Joining me from
1:11.9	the other side of the Appalachians is a man who only picks quarrels and provokes trouble while
1:16.7	strolling the streets of Beijing and other Chinese cities wearing a kimono, the one and only
1:22.0	Kimiumi, aka Jeremy Goldcorn. Greet the people, won't you?
1:27.9	That was a pretty ridiculous one.
1:30.7	You're referring, of course, to the poor young lady in Suujo, who was arrested, a
1:35.3	cosplayer she was, for just walking around the streets of Sujo in a kimono.
1:40.6	Unfor-youvergaring.
1:41.3	Apparently, wearing a kimono is kind of a evidence that you are a traitor.
1:47.4	Anyhow.
1:50.0	Wow, Jeremy, you're joining the podcast for a second week in a row.
	...

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