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The Breakdown

Is Bitcoin More Correlated to Stocks or Gold?

The Breakdown

Blockworks

Investing, Business

4.8786 Ratings

🗓️ 11 October 2020

⏱️ 13 minutes

🧾️ Download transcript

Summary

Today on Long Reads Sunday, a reading of Lyn Alden’s piece for CoinDesk: “Bitcoin Correlations Depend on What Phase It Is In” In it, Lyn argues that bitcoin’s correlation patterns are, in part, reliant on where bitcoin finds itself in its own cycles of expansion or consolidation.

Transcript

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0:00.0

Welcome back to The Breakdown with me, NLW.

0:09.2

It's a daily podcast on macro, Bitcoin, and the big picture power shifts remaking our world.

0:15.2

The breakdown is sponsored by crypto.com, nexo.io, and elliptic, and produced and distributed by CoinDes.

0:23.1

What's going on, guys? It is Sunday, October 11th, and that means it's time for long reads Sunday.

0:30.4

This week, I confronted an issue that kind of surprised me. In my head, I had anticipated that I wouldn't

0:36.3

really have an instinct to run into trying to

0:39.3

read the same author's piece too close together. However, what I hadn't counted on is the

0:45.3

unbelievable, prolific output of Lynn Alden in 2020. A few weeks ago, maybe two, I'm saying a few

0:52.8

to reassure myself, but either way, a few weeks ago,

0:56.2

I read one of her pieces about the inflation versus deflation conversation and the historical

1:02.4

context for it. This week, however, she tackled one of the issues that has been at the absolute

1:08.5

epicenter of debate around Bitcoin, which is how correlated

1:13.5

is it to stock markets and to gold, and what does that say about what type of asset it is?

1:20.2

Even though I'd recently read another piece by Lynn, I had to take this one on as well, so I'm

1:26.0

pretty sure you guys won't mind. This one was published

1:29.1

in CoinDesk earlier this week and is called Bitcoin Correlations Depend on what phase it is in.

1:36.5

Bitcoin has multiple long-term and short-term variables that affect its price, and many

1:41.0

folks debate what its major correlations are, if any. It turns out the same

1:45.3

factors that affect Bitcoin's price, real rates of inflation, monetary and fiscal policy,

1:50.9

and market exuberance also partially determined to which assets Bitcoin is correlated.

1:57.0

Over the long run since its launch, increasing user adoption, ever-strengthening security,

2:01.8

and the widening network effect have propelled Bitcoin's market capitalization to greater and greater

...

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