Is a Recession Bullish For Tech Stocks? (EP.248)
Animal Spirits Podcast
The Compound
4.7 ⢠2.1K Ratings
šļø 16 March 2022
ā±ļø 48 minutes
šļø Recording | iTunes | RSS
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| 0:00.0 | Today's animal spirits is brought to you by Y-charts Netflix is in a 50% drawdown its deepest since |
| 0:10.8 | I shorted the stock not to brag. I bought points. That was my best trade ever actually. I like 20x to my |
| 0:17.0 | money. I bought weekly put options on Netflix. Remember when they split off, when they were about to split |
| 0:23.6 | their DVD business from the streaming and everybody went nuts? Yeah, and I was ready to stick with |
| 0:28.5 | the DVD business because I was still using those a bad time. So I bought points. The stock went down |
| 0:32.4 | 30% on the next morning and I made a killing and I thought I was going to retire in three years. |
| 0:36.7 | I just extrapolated out. So anyway, Netflix is getting creamed. I'm sorry. That's a huge number to |
| 0:41.6 | me. Netflix being down 50% when so many people have gone in streaming now. That's a big no. Well, |
| 0:45.9 | that's the point. So Netflix market cap had three hundred billion dollars. Now it's down to 150. |
| 0:50.0 | Back where it was in the beginning of 2018 and there was an article in Bloomberg showing what's |
| 0:55.8 | popular in Netflix. And here's why. You know, it's funny. We spoke for years about competition, |
| 1:01.6 | about streaming war competition between Amazon and Apple. This is like even before Peacock and Hulu. |
| 1:07.2 | Do you remember like an AT&T? It never materialized. It never mattered. And now it's here. I feel like |
| 1:11.6 | we don't talk about it for whatever reason. But this is what's going on. It's just competition. So |
| 1:16.2 | it showed that TV is more popular than movies on Netflix, which makes sense because TVs are longer |
| 1:20.9 | than movies. But this is the thing. The average Netflix hit disappears after two weeks or less. |
| 1:29.2 | So the amount of money that they have to spend competing for viewers eyeballs is beyond astronomical. |
| 1:37.3 | And the cows come home to roost. No, the chickens came home to roost. I'm not a farmer. The chickens, |
| 1:41.6 | right? 150 billion still seems like a lot. Are there 300 billion or 150? I don't know, but either one |
| 1:47.2 | seems like a lot. That's a good point. It's hard to say. But if you're clients on Netflix, |
| 1:52.3 | they're probably experiencing some volatility. We have people reach out all the time. Probably. |
| 1:56.2 | Well, thanks a little bit. Yes, certainly. We have a lot of advisors reach out and they say more people |
... |
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