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Animal Spirits Podcast

Is a Recession Bullish For Tech Stocks? (EP.248)

Animal Spirits Podcast

The Compound

Investing, Business News, News, Business

4.7 • 2.1K Ratings

šŸ—“ļø 16 March 2022

ā±ļø 48 minutes

šŸ§¾ļø Download transcript

Summary

On today's show we discuss the probability for a recession, crazy commodities prices, housing as a commodity, rising mortgage rates, why dogs are so awesome, the new Batman movie and much more. Ā  Find complete shownotes on our blogs...Ā Ben Carlson’s A Wealth of Common SenseĀ Michael Batnick’s The Irrelevant InvestorĀ Like us on FacebookĀ And feel free to shoot us an email at animalspiritspod@gmail.com with any feedback, questions, recommendations, or ideas for future topics of conversation.Ā Ā  Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Transcript

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0:00.0

Today's animal spirits is brought to you by Y-charts Netflix is in a 50% drawdown its deepest since

0:10.8

I shorted the stock not to brag. I bought points. That was my best trade ever actually. I like 20x to my

0:17.0

money. I bought weekly put options on Netflix. Remember when they split off, when they were about to split

0:23.6

their DVD business from the streaming and everybody went nuts? Yeah, and I was ready to stick with

0:28.5

the DVD business because I was still using those a bad time. So I bought points. The stock went down

0:32.4

30% on the next morning and I made a killing and I thought I was going to retire in three years.

0:36.7

I just extrapolated out. So anyway, Netflix is getting creamed. I'm sorry. That's a huge number to

0:41.6

me. Netflix being down 50% when so many people have gone in streaming now. That's a big no. Well,

0:45.9

that's the point. So Netflix market cap had three hundred billion dollars. Now it's down to 150.

0:50.0

Back where it was in the beginning of 2018 and there was an article in Bloomberg showing what's

0:55.8

popular in Netflix. And here's why. You know, it's funny. We spoke for years about competition,

1:01.6

about streaming war competition between Amazon and Apple. This is like even before Peacock and Hulu.

1:07.2

Do you remember like an AT&T? It never materialized. It never mattered. And now it's here. I feel like

1:11.6

we don't talk about it for whatever reason. But this is what's going on. It's just competition. So

1:16.2

it showed that TV is more popular than movies on Netflix, which makes sense because TVs are longer

1:20.9

than movies. But this is the thing. The average Netflix hit disappears after two weeks or less.

1:29.2

So the amount of money that they have to spend competing for viewers eyeballs is beyond astronomical.

1:37.3

And the cows come home to roost. No, the chickens came home to roost. I'm not a farmer. The chickens,

1:41.6

right? 150 billion still seems like a lot. Are there 300 billion or 150? I don't know, but either one

1:47.2

seems like a lot. That's a good point. It's hard to say. But if you're clients on Netflix,

1:52.3

they're probably experiencing some volatility. We have people reach out all the time. Probably.

1:56.2

Well, thanks a little bit. Yes, certainly. We have a lot of advisors reach out and they say more people

...

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