Investment Ideas for a Hard Winter in the Real Economy (w/ Ed Harrison and Gary Shilling)

Real Vision: Finance & Investing

Real Vision

Investing, Business News, News, Business

4.1 • 1.1K Ratings

🗓️ 31 January 2021

⏱️ 52 minutes

🔗️ Recording | iTunes | RSS

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Summary

The Interview: Recorded on Dec 4 , 2020: With cases spiking and economic data surrounding the recovery slowing or outright rolling over in many cases, it appears as though a hard winter is in store for the global economy. Gary Shilling, president of A. Gary Shilling & Co., is well known for having forecasted these types of downturns in the past and, along with Real Vision's Ed Harrison, discusses why he thinks we are in store for another economic downturn this winter. Shilling highlights real economic data like slowing job gains, increased COVID-19 deaths, and the potential for renewed economic shutdowns, but he cautions that the strange correlation, where bad news equals more stimulus and thus is bullish for equities, can draw out irrationality longer than investors might expect — even if stimulus fails to fully replace economic losses in the long-term. Shilling and Harrison also discuss his investment ideas that arise from this forecast: cautiously short equities, short dollar, and long treasuries. Key Learnings: The real economy and market are once again moving in the opposite direction. Shilling argues that this disconnect will close and that the long bond may be the best way to play to it. He also sees the stimulus feedback loop as putting more downward pressure on the dollar. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Transcript

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0:26.4	Credit Broker Not a lender using panel of lenders for saving, see website. Welcome to Investment Ideas. I'm your host Ed Harrison and I'm talking to
0:39.2	Gary Schilling who is the founder and president I believe it is of the economic consultancy and
0:47.2	information the investment advisors of the same name I really screwed that up Gary. Maybe you can tell us what the
0:55.2	answer is.
0:57.8	Well, yeah, we're in registered investment advisors and economic consultants.
1:04.0	We also published a newsletter, so we're pretty much covered the waterfront from the top down on the economy,
1:11.0	starting with the economy, and getting down to the investment strategy.
1:16.0	Well, you know, we've spoken before, but I think this is a good time to mention the fact that you have a the monthly newsletter,
1:26.4	the Insight newsletter, which you've been doing for quite a long time.
1:31.5	Let me just give you a little bit of a plug because people can get to it at a Gary Schilling.com.
1:37.0	They can also find it at 888, 346, 744, so that's a bit old school in terms of the telephone number.
1:46.2	The reason I mentioned that Gary is, again, you've been doing this independent research,
1:52.1	one of the best out there for a long time.
1:54.3	How long have you been in the business?
	...

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