Investing in a World of Permanent Stimulus | Vincent Deluard

Hidden Forces

Demetri Kofinas

Government, Business

4.8 • 1.6K Ratings

🗓️ 4 August 2025

⏱️ 58 minutes

🔗️ Recording | iTunes | RSS

🧾️ Download transcript

Summary

In Episode 432 of Hidden Forces, Demetri Kofinas speaks with Vincent Deluard, Director of Global Macro Strategy at StoneX Group, where he advises large institutional investors on asset allocation, economic forecasting, and quantitative modeling informed by historical patterns and structural economic analysis.

Vincent Deluard and Demetri spend the first hour of their conversation exploring Deluard’s macroeconomic framework and the key structural forces that he believes are shaping the emergence of a new macro regime of fiscal dominance, including shifting demographics, politically driven inflation, geopolitical fragmentation, and the decline of institutional trust. The two discuss his provocative thesis that recessions have been "canceled," examining the structural and technological forces that Vincent believes are reducing economic cyclicality and reshaping the role of monetary and fiscal policy.

In the second hour, Vincent Deluard delves much deeper into his specific investment theses, including his call for an Asia "reverse currency crisis," his long-term outlook for the U.S. dollar, and an Asian-driven oil demand shock that could rile markets and challenge the ability of monetary authorities to balance their mandates of maintaining price stability while also supporting economic growth and maximum employment. Vincent also shares his suggestions on how to construct a "fiscal dominance" portfolio, including which asset classes he believes will outperform under the new macroeconomic conditions that they discuss in their conversation and how investors can best manage risk and reward in this new paradigm.

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Episode Recorded on 07/29/2025

Transcript

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0:00.0	What's up, everybody? My name is Demetri Kaffinus, and you're listening to Hidden Forces,
0:06.1	a podcast that inspires investors, entrepreneurs and everyday citizens to challenge consensus narratives,
0:13.6	and learn how to think critically about the systems of power shaping our world.
0:18.9	My guest in this episode of Hidden Forces is Vincent Deloire,
0:22.9	director of global macro strategy at Stone Age's Group, where he advises large institutional
0:28.4	investors on asset allocation, economic forecasting, and quantitative modeling
0:33.9	informed by historical patterns and structural economic analysis.
0:38.8	We spent the first hour of this conversation exploring Vincent's macroeconomic framework
0:43.6	and the key structural forces that he believes are shaping the emergence of a new macro
0:49.1	regime of fiscal dominance, including shifting demographics, politically driven inflation, geopolitical
0:55.8	fragmentation, and the decline of institutional trust.
0:59.7	We also discuss his provocative thesis that recessions have been, quote, canceled, examining
1:05.0	the structural and technological forces that he believes are reducing economic cyclicality and reshaping the role of monetary and
1:13.6	fiscal policy. The second hour delves much deeper into Vincent's specific investment thesis,
1:20.9	including his insights on what he calls Asia's reverse currency crisis, his long-term outlook for
1:26.3	the U.S. dollar, and an Asian-driven oil demand
1:29.4	shock that could rile markets and challenge the ability of monetary authorities to balance their
1:34.7	mandates of maintaining price stability while also supporting economic growth and maximum employment.
1:41.3	This also shares his suggestions on how to construct a fiscal dominance portfolio,
1:46.2	including which asset classes he believes will outperform under the new macroeconomic conditions
1:51.7	that we discuss in our conversation and how investors can best manage risk and reward in this new
1:57.4	paradigm. If you want access to all of this conversation,
	...

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