Hello, fellow rebel capitals, hope you're well. I'm here with my good buddy, Patrick Sorezna.

How's it going, George?

It's going well, but there's a lot to talk about right now.

Did you see, I just did a video on the 10-year Treasury yield is down like 15

basis points just today. Yeah. Just today. So let me start off by asking you

when it comes to long-term interest rates, are you in the camp

where you believe that they are a result of future inflation and growth expectations.

I think that's that Irving Fisher view,

or are you someone that more so believes

that the Fed has complete control over interest rates?

What do you think drives that 10 year?

Okay, so the 10 year bond is much more price discovery than the two year, right?

The two years directly reflecting the forecast of Fed funds rates, right?

Because it's so short in duration, the path of the Fed is the predominant driver.

Of course, when you're going longer duration bonds, market's expectation of

inflation, future inflation, not just where the inflation rate is. And that's

where a lot of people mix it out. Because it's, everyone's like, oh oh shit inflation's at 7% but yeah okay

inflation might be at 9% 7% 5% but where do they think the average inflation

for the next decade is going to be and if that average of inflation is

much lower than that Fisher equation is calculating it but it's been wonky

with negative real rates and all sorts of stuff. It's really hard to gauge.

You know, I obviously central banks play a role. They, when they do quantitative easing and or tightening by increasing

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