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Goldman Sachs Exchanges

Implications of a higher-for-longer rate regime

Goldman Sachs Exchanges

Goldman Sachs

Business

4.41K Ratings

🗓️ 11 October 2023

⏱️ 26 minutes

🧾️ Download transcript

Summary

Global bond yields have moved sharply higher in recent weeks, setting the stage for a higher-for-longer rate regime. Goldman Sachs Research’s Praveen Korapaty, chief interest rates strategist, and Global Banking & Markets’ Anshul Sehgal, co-head of US interest rate products trading, explain the implications for economic growth, investors, and markets.

Transcript

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0:00.0

Global bond yields have moved sharply higher in recent weeks setting the stage for a higher for longer rate regime.

0:06.0

So how much higher can yields move and what are the implications for investors?

0:10.0

The market are going to try and steal their way to what level of yields the economy can sustain or other markets can sustain.

0:17.8

And so I would not rule out that you see an extension of the sell-off.

0:22.0

However, I think that the sell-off would not stick, meaning to the extent

0:26.8

you see further sell-off from here, you increase the risk of a sharper reversal in these

0:31.6

yields. I'm Allison Nathan, and this is Goldman Sachs exchanges.

0:35.0

To help make sense of the turmoil in the bond market and the impact on

0:46.9

economic growth and markets, I'm sitting down with Pervine Corapotti, Chief

0:51.0

Interest Rate Strategist for Goldman Sachs research, and Anschil Siegel,

0:54.6

co-head of U.S. interest rate products trading in our global banking and markets business.

0:58.8

We'll first turn to Praveen, who's joining us remotely from Europe.

1:01.9

Praveen, welcome back to the program.

1:03.2

Good to be on.

1:04.2

So let's start with some broader context here.

1:06.7

Bond yields, obviously they've been on the rise since early last year when the Fed

1:10.5

started hiking substantially to deal with the inflation problem but we've seen a

1:14.4

particularly sharp sell-off in US treasuries in recent weeks.

1:17.9

So talk us a little about what's behind that new?

1:20.9

I'd say there's a confluence of reasons. Now if you go back a few months

1:24.9

most investors were expecting a recession by the end of this year.

1:28.6

Growth data or summer suggested that that was extremely unlikely.

...

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