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Top Traders Unplugged

IL30: How To Evaluate True Macro Risk? ft. Philipp Carlsson-Szlezak

Top Traders Unplugged

Niels Kaastrup-Larsen

Business, Business News, Investing, News

4.8670 Ratings

🗓️ 11 September 2024

⏱️ 59 minutes

🧾️ Download transcript

Summary

Our guest on this episode is Philipp Carlsson-Szlezak, the Global Chief Economist at BCG and author of a new book: Shocks, Crises and False Alarms: How to Assess True Macroeconomic Risk. He explains why it’s wrong to put focus on extreme “doom mongering” predictions - which often turn out to be false alarms. We discuss his intuitive framework for evaluating economic predictions and use it to evaluate the risk of inflation and debt in the coming years.

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Episode TimeStamps:

02:07 - Introduction to Philipp Carlsson

03:08 - What motivated Carlsson to write his book?

05:13 - A framework for assessing macro risk

09:00 - How do we react to doomsayings?

11:18 - Covid19 - the perfect example of a false alarm

15:15 - The new area of tightness

18:27 - It is all about labour cost

23:46 - The deflationary power of technology

26:46 - The outlook of the labour market

32:22 - Why inflation expectations will stay achored in a world of...

Transcript

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0:00.0

So I think it's sort of a reminder of how hard it is to do this, which doesn't mean it won't happen.

0:12.9

It will happen.

0:13.6

Just we've got to be realistic about the timing and the sizing of this.

0:17.4

And when I see these stories of GDP growth is going to go up more than a

0:21.6

percentage point. No, it won't. Not next year, not the year after. Cumulatively, this will be

0:28.2

powerful. But let's just stay realistic as the message of the book.

0:35.0

Imagine spending an hour with the world's greatest traders. Imagine learning from their experiences,

0:40.9

their successes, and their failures. Imagine no more. Welcome to Top Traders Unplugged,

0:47.5

the place where you can learn from the best hedge fund managers in the world so you can take your

0:52.1

manager due diligence or investment career to the

0:54.8

next level. Before we begin today's conversation, remember to keep two things in mind. All the

1:00.3

discussion we'll have about investment performance is about the past, and past performance

1:04.6

does not guarantee or even infer anything about future performance. Also understand that there's

1:09.7

a significant risk of financial loss

1:11.5

with all investment strategies, and you need to request and understand the specific risks from

1:16.5

the investment manager about their product before you make investment decisions.

1:20.7

Here's your host, veteran hedge fund manager, Nealz Kostrup Larson.

1:30.0

For me, the best part of my podcasting journey has been the opportunity to speak to a huge range of extraordinary people from all around the world.

1:38.4

In this series, I have invited one of them, namely Kevin Koldine, to host a series of in-depth conversations to help uncover

1:45.6

and explain new ideas to make you a better investor.

1:49.8

In the series, Kevin will be speaking to authors of new books and research papers to better

1:54.2

understand the global economy and the dynamics that shape it so that we can all successfully

...

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