How to Trade the Great Rotation From Big Tech to Commodities | Tony Greer

Hidden Forces

Demetri Kofinas

Government, Business

4.8 • 1.6K Ratings

🗓️ 23 May 2022

⏱️ 54 minutes

🔗️ Recording | iTunes | RSS

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Summary

In Episode 251 of Hidden Forces, Demetri Kofinas speaks with Tony Greer, the founder of TG Macro, an independent research firm that provides fundamental, technical, and behavioral analysis of global markets to institutional and non-institutional clients alike.

This conversation follows-up on a series of episodes we’ve published recently focused on the macro, political, and geopolitical economy, with an especially strong focus on commodities, currencies, and government policy. The goal with all of these episdoes has been to help listeners develop a framework for thinking about some of the big-picture trends driving markets and the economy, with the ultimate goal of helping them gain the type of conviction needed in order to invest successfully in them.

Those who heard Demetri’s recent episode with Grant Williams know that he was able to use this framework to profitably exit long-held positions in risk-assets ahead of the recent market downturn and even rotated some of those profits into commodities, though as he has said countless times he did not allocate nearly enough because he lacked conviction. He didn’t know enough to feel confident in the Supercycle thesis that we laid out in our recent episode with Jeff Currie. He didn’t fuly appreciate the supply-side picture that the team at Doomberg has been writing about so presciently for the past year and that we spoke with them about during Doomberg’s recent appearance on Hidden Forces.

So what does one do now? What does one do if he or she is persuaded by the thesis that long-term, structural forces restricting the supply of key commodities will support persistently high prices even in the face of relatively weak demand, but doesn’t have conviction around what those prices could reasonably be, especially in the short-term ahead of a Fed tightening cycle?

This is why we’ve brought Tony Greer on the podcast. Tony’s specialty is trading commodities. He’s been doing it for 30 years and we’re going to rely on his experience to work through exactly the type of dilemma that has been laid out here and which many of you may also be struggling with.

You can access the full episode, transcript, and intelligence report to this week’s conversation by going directly to the episode page at HiddenForces.io and clicking on "premium extras." All subscribers gain access to our premium feed, which can be easily added to your favorite podcast application.

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Episode Recorded on 05/17/2022

Transcript

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0:00.0	What's up everybody? My name is Demetri Kaffinis and you're listening to Hidden Forces,
0:06.3	a podcast that inspires investors, entrepreneurs and everyday citizens to challenge consensus
0:13.6	narratives and to learn how to think critically, but the systems of power shaping our world.
0:19.1	My guest in this week's episode is Tony Greer, the founder of TG Macro, an independent research firm
0:25.7	that provides fundamental, technical, and behavioral analysis of global markets to
0:31.1	institutional clients and individual subscribers. This conversation follows up on a series of episodes
0:37.4	that I've published recently focused on the macro, political, and geopolitical economy,
0:43.0	with an especially strong focus on commodities, currencies, and government policy with guests like
0:48.8	Jeff Curry, Brent Johnson, Russell Napier, and Muhammad Alaria. I think all of those conversations
0:55.0	have been super useful in helping me build out a more detailed framework for thinking about what
1:00.5	some of the big picture trends are going to be in markets and the economy. And so doing,
1:05.4	helping me build the type of conviction that I need in order to invest successfully in them.
1:11.6	Those of you who heard my recent episode of Grant Williams know that I was able to use that
1:15.6	framework to monetize positions that I've held in risk assets over the last several years,
1:20.5	in anticipation of the recent downer. I was even able to take some of those profits and rotate
1:26.2	them into commodities. Unfortunately, I didn't allocate nearly enough. And the reason,
1:32.7	if I'm being honest, is because I didn't have conviction. I didn't know enough to feel confident
1:38.0	in the super cycle thesis that we laid out in my recent episode with Jeff Curry. I didn't fully
1:43.0	appreciate the supply side picture that the team at Dunberg has been writing about so
1:47.6	presently in the last year and that we spoke about during his recent appearance on Hidden Forces.
1:53.6	So what do I do now? What do I do if I'm persuaded by the thesis that long-term structural forces
1:59.9	restricting the supply of key commodities will support persistently high prices even in the
	...

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