How to Trade Prediction Markets Without an Opinion on the Event - Ep. 979

Unchained

Laura Shin

News, Tech News, Business News

4.6 • 1.3K Ratings

🗓️ 13 December 2025

⏱️ 65 minutes

🔗️ Recording | iTunes | RSS

🧾️ Download transcript

Summary

Visit our website for breaking news, analysis, op-eds, articles to learn about crypto, and much more: unchainedcrypto.com Thank you to our sponsor! Walrus The prediction market meta is piping hot and everyone wants a piece of the pie. In this episode of Unchained, 10x Research founder Markus breaks down what the competition boils down to. Plus, will other platforms follow Polymarket's lead and launch a token? He also walks through a “near certain” trade nestled in Polymarket and shares 10 strategies that can be used to trade prediction markets without an opinion. One key nugget: “It's the wisdom within the crowd.” Guest: Markus Thielen, CEO of 10x Research Previous appearance on Unchained: How to Invest in This Bitcoin Downtrend: Bits + Bips Links Unchained: Paradigm Claims Polymarket Trading Figures Are Double Counted Polymarket Opens US App to Waitlisted Users Intercontinental Exchange to Invest $2 Billion in Polymarket Crypto.com and Kalshi Lead Prediction Market Coalition Setup Kalshi Hits $11B Valuation After $1B Raise: Report Timestamps: 🚀 00:00 Introduction 💡 3:07 Why Markus says prediction market adoption is still in its infancy 👀 6:23 Are speculators abandoning bitcoin for prediction markets? 🧏 8:10 How trading prediction markets differ from crypto markets ⚖️ 11:48 How Polymarket and Kalshi compare in strengths and weaknesses ⚡️ 15:12 Why Markus thinks Polymarket and Kalshi are likely to remain the dominant players 📝 19:15 What traders should consider when choosing a prediction market platform 💥 23:05 How the POLY Airdrop could give Polymarket an edge ⁉️ 26:39 Will other prediction markets launch a token? 💡 33:19 How risks in trading prediction markets differ from crypto markets 🧠 36:31 Markus walks through a “near certain” Bitcoin trade paying 63% annualized 🤯 39:58 Strategies to trade prediction markets without having an opinion ❕️ 51:48 Why Markus avoids “moon shot” trades ⚠️ 54:11 How to trade by finding “wisdom within the crowd” 🤺 1:00:17 How prediction markets enable hedging against real world outcomes 📃 1:02:34 Final thoughts on how traders should approach prediction markets Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Transcript

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0:00.0	Hi, everyone to Unchained, your no high resource for all things crypto. I'm your host,
0:19.6	Laura Shin. Thanks for joining this
0:21.5	live stream. Before we get started, just a quick reminder, nothing you hear on Unchained is investment
0:26.8	advice. The show is for informational and entertainment purposes only, and my guest and I may hold
0:32.1	assets discussed in the show. For more disclosures, visit Unchained Crypto.com. Also, you'll notice something new in today's episode.
0:41.3	Instead of our usual ad spots, we're introducing a different sponsored format.
0:46.1	We interviewed our sponsor, Walrus, a project we actually use at Unchained for data storage,
0:52.1	and throughout the episode, you'll hear short excerpts from that interview.
0:56.5	Even though those segments are sponsored, we also think the material is genuinely interesting and worth your time.
1:02.8	We're going to start with the first of those clips now.
1:06.5	Maybe we'll put it into two categories.
1:09.6	There's a very practical hands-on problem with data, which is in this AI era, we need gigantic
1:20.1	amounts of data.
1:22.1	And not only do we need gigantic amounts of data, that data is then used to create even more data. So we are
1:29.8	exponentially increasing the amount of data every single day. This is very expensive to store
1:38.1	and it's expensive not just in terms of money, but in computing power and time and speed.
1:48.8	And then you have different types of data.
1:51.5	So structured data, all well and good, especially when we're talking about a blockchain.
1:58.3	But the more we're using blockchains and AI together and big computations
2:04.9	are, it's unstructured data that we don't really have or haven't really had anything
2:11.2	super perform at any way to store it or calculate it. And that's actually how Walrus was originally envisaged.
2:21.0	That small, you know, small data, structured data that can be stored on a blockchain.
	...

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