How to Survive a 'Nuclear Winter'

Stansberry Investor Hour

Stansberry Research

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4.4 • 677 Ratings

🗓️ 9 May 2022

⏱️ 75 minutes

🔗️ Recording | iTunes | RSS

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Summary

In today's dismal market, value stocks remain a beacon of hope for investors... And there's no one better suited to discuss this topic than recurring Investor Hour favorite, Tobias Carlisle. Tobias is the founder and managing director of deep-value investment firm Acquirers Funds, which is centered around his trademarked valuation tool – the Acquirer's Multiple. Simply put, it's a "valuation ratio used to find attractive takeover candidates"... and is favored by many activists and buyout firms. On top of creating a proprietary metric, Tobias has also written several books, including The Acquirer's Multiple, Concentrated Investing, Deep Value, and Quantitative Value.

So, what does Tobias have to say about the slump we're in?

It's not really a question of where you think the market's going to go because you're invariably going to be wrong... The best return you're going to get is by being fully invested.

He says "names that can survive a nuclear winter" are the keys to surviving this bear market. To Tobias, that means focusing on deeply undervalued companies – ones that are buying back shares, are cheap, and are growing at a reasonable pace. He also breaks down the art of valuation – including his Acquirer's Multiple measure – and how to identify the right time to buy or sell.

Transcript

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0:00.0	Hello and welcome to the Stansberry Investor Hour. I'm your host Dan Ferris. I'm also the
0:11.1	editor of Extreme Value published by Stansberry Research. Today we'll talk with my good friend
0:16.9	Tobias Carlisle. He is a true blue value investor, and I'm going to find out how he is
0:22.4	handling the market downturn. In the mailbag today, questions and comments about platinum, gold,
0:28.3	silver, Hugh Hendry, and a cautionary tale from listener Greg M. And remember, you can call our
0:36.4	listener feedback line 800-381-2357.
0:40.2	Tell us what's on your mind and hear your voice on the show.
0:43.3	For my opening rant this week, let's talk about valuation and market bubbles.
0:49.8	That and more right now on the Stansberry Investor Hour.
1:03.5	Thank you. That and more right now on the Stansberry Investor Hour. Valuation and market bubbles.
1:05.5	What in the world is he talking about?
1:08.2	Well, it's simple.
1:10.7	We are at the point right now where, of course,
1:15.8	the big indexes are all down, S&P 500, NASDAQ, Russell 2000, Dow Jones Industrials. It's
1:24.1	feeling very much like a bare market, although by the typical benchmark, only one of the
1:30.2	indexes, the NASDAQ is in that kind of territory. So S&P 500 isn't quite there yet, but it's
1:39.3	trading like a bear market and lots of stocks, especially in the NASDAQ, are down 50, 60, 70% or more.
1:47.7	The thing is, at this point, down 70% doesn't mean it won't be down 70% more.
2:00.4	I know it sounds crazy. You're like, wow, down 70, 80 percent. It's not a bargain. Yeah,
2:05.4	that is exactly what I'm saying. And I think a good example is the ARC innovation fund, right?
2:12.6	That thing is down 70 percent. And I think it could easily draw, you know, it could fall in half or another 70%
2:20.1	from here. It's loaded with garbage that has never been consistently profitable. Most of it
	...

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