Once violence gets going, it really can take on a life of its own. People can start committing violence because violence was committed against them or their group, and it kind of spirals.

We're not there yet, and I think that gives me a lot of hope if we really concertedly agreed that we didn't want our country to descend into that kind of a situation, we have the ability to change it right now.

Welcome to How To. I'm Amanda Ripley.

It's been two years since the January 6 riot at the U.S. Capitol here in DC, and a lot has happened. Over 900 people have been criminally charged, and about half have pleaded guilty to one or more charges so far.

But we know that the threat of political violence remains dangerously high. The number of recorded threats against members of Congress has jumped more than 10 fold compared to 2016, coming in at the rate of about 26 per day.

This fall, a man was arrested for assaulting Nancy Pelosi's husband with a hammer in their home, and in June, another man was arrested outside Supreme Court Justice Brett Kavanaugh's house with a pistol, a knife, and zip ties.

It's tempting to dismiss these incidents as isolated, awful acts, but they reflect a broader trend.

The American public's support for political violence is now nearing levels seen in Northern Ireland at the height of the troubles there.

Well, here at How To, we are not content to just marinate in fear and blame. We always want to know what to do next to start to climb out of the hole we are in.

So we did what we always do. We called up the smartest experts we could find and asked them how we got here and how we can prevent more tragedies like January 6th.

Where were you on January 6th?

So I was sitting in my office in New Mexico, and I got a call from a four-star military general who I'd been working with, and he said, are you looking at the television?

Meet Dr. Rachel Kleinfeld. She's a senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, and an expert on democracy and security, which is why she found herself talking with that four-star general.

I got on the phone with a lot of people I'd been working with and law enforcement and different things to try to help figure out if there could be a better response in real time.

And as you know, the military was being held back, and the commander-in-chief was actively absent.

I can't say I was surprised. I was actually actively working to avoid some of this, but I was pretty dismayed.

You know, it feels like a real desecration to see that happening in a building that's part of our kind of civic religion in this country.

Dismayed, but not surprised. That's because Rachel has been one of the people warning us all about the potential for serious political violence here for years.

I think it was three years ago, Rachel, that you and some colleagues invited about 50 researchers, conflict experts, government officials to come together to talk about whether America should be worried about political violence.

And I remember there was a checklist as I walked in sort of conditions for political violence.

I remember looking down at it and every single one I could check in my head and I was like, oh crap.

And then you very, you know, thoughtfully and creatively led us through some simulations of what, you know, what might happen, some possible scenarios, a bunch of which have actually come true.

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