How to Prepare the World for a Peaking China | Michael Beckley & Hal Brands

Hidden Forces

Demetri Kofinas

Government, Business

4.8 • 1.6K Ratings

🗓️ 10 October 2022

⏱️ 55 minutes

🔗️ Recording | iTunes | RSS

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Summary

In Episode 276 of Hidden Forces, Demetri Kofinas speaks with Michael Beckley and Hal Brands, the authors of a recently published book titled “Danger Zone,” about how to prepare America and the world for a peaking China. The book argues that the conventional wisdom about the long-term strategic threat that China poses to the existing international order is fundamentally wrong. If a war between the US and China is to break out, it could happen much sooner than the US defense establishment prepared for.

Hal Brands and Michael Beckley's basic thesis is that China is at a perilous moment in its development as a great power: strong enough to violently challenge the existing order, yet increasingly losing confidence that time is on its side. Witness its aggression toward Taiwan, its record-breaking military buildup, and its efforts to dominate the critical technologies that will shape the world's future. While a new cold war with China may last decades, both Beckley and Brands believe that the crucial battle that could determine much of what that war will look like may well be decided before the end of this decade.

This episode is meant to help establish what it would take to win a battle over Taiwan and demonstrate to the leadership in Beijing that attempting to change the status quo in Asia would not only likely result in failure for China but almost certainly in the catastrophic destruction of the global economy and the permanent political isolation of the Chinese Communist Party.

If you want access to the second part of today’s conversation, which focuses on actionable steps, war planning scenarios, and thought experiments on how such a war could be waged and won, as well as the transcripts and intelligence reports, which include my takeaways from every episode, as well as my thoughts on what comes next, head over to HiddenForces.io select the episode that you're interested in and click on the premium extras, where you can then sign up to one of our premium content tiers. All subscribers gain access to our premium feed, which can be easily added to your favorite podcast application.

If you have questions about our genius tier, which includes access to the Hidden Forces community, Q&A calls with guests, in-person events, and dinners, you can learn more at HiddenForces.io/subscribe. If you have further questions, feel free to send an email to [email protected], and Demetri or someone else from our team will get right back to you.

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Episode Recorded on 09/28/2022

Transcript

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0:00.0	What's up everybody? My name is Demetra Caffeines and you're listening to Hidden Forces,
0:06.0	a podcast that inspires investors, entrepreneurs and everyday citizens, the challenge consensus
0:12.9	narratives, and to learn how to think critically about the systems of power shaping our world.
0:18.8	My guests in this episode are Hal Brands and Michael Beckley, the authors of a recently published
0:24.5	book titled Danger Zone, which argues that the conventional wisdom about the long-term strategic
0:30.8	threat that China poses to the existing international order is fundamentally wrong, and that if the US
0:37.4	is to fight itself in a war with a people's republic that it will happen much sooner than most people
0:43.2	including the US defense establishment are prepared for. Michael and Hal's basic thesis
0:49.3	is that China is at a perilous moment in its development as a great power.
0:54.2	Strong enough to violently challenge the existing order, get increasingly losing confidence
1:00.0	that time is on its side. While a new Cold War with China may last decades,
1:05.2	both authors believe that the crucial battle that could determine much of what that war will look like
1:11.1	may well be determined before the end of this decade. Today's episode is meant to help establish
1:18.1	what it would take to win that battle and demonstrate to the leadership in China that attempting
1:23.4	to change the status quo in Asia would not only likely result in failure for Beijing, but almost
1:29.6	certainly in the catastrophic destruction of the global economy and the permanent political
1:35.2	isolation of the Chinese Communist Party. If you want access to the second part of today's
1:40.6	conversation which focuses on actionable steps, war planning scenarios, and thought experiments
1:46.1	on how such a war could be waged and won, as well as the transcripts and intelligence reports,
1:51.8	which include my takeaways from every episode, as well as my thoughts on what comes next,
1:57.1	head over to hiddenforces.io, select the episode that you're interested in, and click on the premium
2:03.0	extras, where you can then sign up to one of our premium content tiers. If you have any questions
	...

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