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This is Fresh Air, I'm Terry Gross.

Russia's invasion of Ukraine isn't its first incursion there in recent years.

In 2014, Russia annexed Crimea, which had been part of an independent Ukraine for 23 years.

Putin also sent forces into the part of eastern Ukraine known as the Donbas region and tried to take it over.

Shortly after Putin took over Crimea, my guest Michael Kimmich joined the State Department's policy planning staff

overseeing the Ukraine-Russia portfolio.

John Kerry was Secretary of State, Obama was President.

Kimmich left the State Department on the day Trump took the oath of office.

Kimmich has been writing about what Putin wants to achieve in Russia's new invasion

and what it would mean for Ukraine, Europe and the US if Russia wins.

Kimmich is now Chair of the History Department at the Catholic University of America in Washington, D.C.,

and a fellow at the German Marshall Fund.

We recorded our interview yesterday.

Michael Kimmich, welcome to Fresh Air.

So there's two wars going on now.

There's the military one and the economic one being waged through sanctions.

Russia has the stronger, better armed military

but Russia is losing the economic war.

The sanctions are just already devastating the Russian economy.

Which war do you think is more likely to determine the future of Ukraine?

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