How Sticky Will Inflation Be in 2021?

Real Vision: Finance & Investing

Real Vision

Investing, Business News, News, Business

4.1 • 1.1K Ratings

🗓️ 29 March 2021

⏱️ 42 minutes

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Summary

DB-Mar29,2021: Peter Boockvar, CIO of Bleakley Advisory Group and editor of The Boock Report, joins Real Vision managing editor Ed Harrison to discuss how the next few months will be critical in determining how sticky rising inflation expectations will be. As the vaccination rollout progresses, albeit slowly in many countries, Boockvar explains that markets are continuing to look ahead to the reopening of the economy with fears of inflation constantly present. He sees that the pressures coming from increasing commodity, labor, and services costs could prove to have a lasting effect on inflation expectations in the months to come, and he says this could bolster the 10-year Treasury yield rising north of 2%. They also talk about how this may impact the U.S. dollar. In the second half of the Daily Briefing, Harrison welcomes Trevor Hall, host of the Mining Stock Daily Podcast, to discuss rising input and commodity costs and its overall effect on precious metals, industrials, and miners. For our Listeners : Protect your portfolio and join 130,000 members by signing up at masterworks.io with promo code REAL VISION today to skip the waitlist. See important information at masterworks.io/disclaimer Checkout Jordan Harbinger Show @ https://www.jordanharbinger.com/ Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Transcript

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0:00.0	Welcome to the Real Vision Daily Briefing. Today, it's really only about one thing. The 10-year
0:17.3	U.S. Treasury bought near 52-week highs. That's about it in terms of the market action. We've got
0:24.0	Peter Bookvar, the CIO, a blickly advisory group, and the editor of the book report to break that
0:30.0	all down with us. Welcome back to RBDB, Peter. Thanks for having me. You know, not a very interesting
0:38.1	day today in the markets in the equity sector. I'm just looking at the indices, how they close,
0:45.2	the Dow up barely, Nasdaq down a bit, S&P down, but the real action was in bonds.
0:53.3	It makes me think about inflation and your calls on inflation. What are you thinking about
1:00.3	giving the price action that you saw today? Well, inflation expectations were a little change,
1:06.8	but that's after jumping again on Friday, where the 10-year break even broke out to a fresh
1:13.2	eight-year high, and the five-year break even is just about the highest since 2008.
1:19.5	A phenomenal change in interest rates today has the long end, sort of creeping back up to that
1:24.9	175 upper end of what's been this range. I do think we break out of this range, but maybe just
1:32.9	not yet, as we sort of digest this move. I think the market is sort of sniffing out, of course,
1:40.4	this grand reopening that we're going to have is now we're vaccinating 3 million people a day,
1:46.0	and what that means. Actually, on the way to work today saw a now hiring sign in front of
1:52.6	a local restaurant. So I think they're all getting ready for this for this sort of transition,
2:00.0	but at the same time we've had to deal with this sort of third or fourth wave. I don't even know
2:04.9	what number it is in Europe and worries about these extra variants in Brazil. But I'm of the
2:10.8	opinion, as long as we keep vaccinating more people every single day, even though obviously,
2:15.9	in some parts of the world, it's going rather slowly that we are moving past the worst of this,
2:23.6	and that Europe will be the caboose here, of course, but it will eventually get to its destination.
2:30.3	When you talk about Europe immediately, it makes me think about the narrative, especially in bonds,
	...

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