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Hello and welcome to Coffee House Shots, The Spectators Daily Politics Podcast.

I'm Isabel Hardman and I'm joined by Fraser Nelson and James Forsyth.

Well, we're heading into the final hours of campaigning for the local, Scottish,

mayoral and Hartleypool by elections.

James, how are things looking?

So we've had an absolute flurry of polls today.

And they all tell interesting stories. So the Scottish polling, most polls seem to have the

SNP on course for a majority on their own, or in combination with the Greens. I think it is

quite clear that the next Scottish Parliament is going to have a pro-independence majority.

And that, I think, will lead in time to a request for a Section 30 order.

I think it is also, though, quite interesting that polls which show the S&P on course for a majority

also tend to show the no side ahead, which does suggest that we shouldn't

read across from, oh, the SMP or pro-independence parties that won a majority, therefore it's

inevitable that the independent side will win in any second referendum. Welsh poll out today

suggests Labour will be the largest party but might be short

for the majority. Unsurprisingly, the London polls will point to Sadiq Khan winning relatively

comfortably and I don't think we have had any new polls in the West Midlands or Teaside or

Harleypool. But I think one of the challenges for labour,

and you might say this is a ridiculous thing to say,

but I think it's true,

...