How Reliable is Economic Data?

Exchanges

Goldman Sachs

Business

4.4 • 1K Ratings

🗓️ 25 September 2025

⏱️ 26 minutes

🔗️ Recording | iTunes | RSS

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Summary

Are concerns about the quality and reliability of economic data — as well as its vulnerabilities to political influences — warranted? Former BLS Commissioner Erica Groshen, who served from 2013 to 2017, Laffer Associates’ Arthur Laffer, Harvard Business School’s Alberto Cavallo, and Goldman Sachs’ Joseph Briggs discuss data quality, political influence, and the future of economic indicators with Allison Nathan on Goldman Sachs Exchanges. This episode explores the latest Top of Mind report. This episode was recorded on August 18, 19, 26, and September 11, 2025. The opinions and views expressed herein are as of the date of publication, subject to change without notice, and may not necessarily reflect the institutional views of Goldman Sachs or its affiliates. The material provided is intended for informational purposes only, and does not constitute investment advice, a recommendation from any Goldman Sachs entity to take any particular action, or an offer or solicitation to purchase or sell any securities or financial products. This material may contain forward-looking statements. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Neither Goldman Sachs nor any of its affiliates make any representations or warranties, express or implied, as to the accuracy or completeness of the statements or information contained herein and disclaim any liability whatsoever for reliance on such information for any purpose. Each name of a third-party organization mentioned is the property of the company to which it relates, is used here strictly for informational and identification purposes only and is not used to imply any ownership or license rights between any such company and Goldman Sachs. A transcript is provided for convenience and may differ from the original video or audio content. Goldman Sachs is not responsible for any errors in the transcript. This material should not be copied, distributed, published, or reproduced in whole or in part or disclosed by any recipient to any other person without the express written consent of Goldman Sachs. Disclosures applicable to research with respect to issuers, if any, mentioned herein are available through your Goldman Sachs representative or at http://www.gs.com/research/hedge.html. Goldman Sachs does not endorse any candidate or any political party. © 2025 Goldman Sachs. All rights reserved. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Transcript

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0:00.0	Today I'm coming to you with a topic I've thought a lot about recently, which is economic data, and how much we can trust that it's really painting a true picture of what's going on in the economy.
0:17.0	This is particularly on my mind right now because of a few things that have happened. We've
0:21.1	seen major revisions in some important economic indicators, and President Trump recently fired
0:26.6	the Bureau of Labor Statistics Commissioner who oversees a production of several important
0:31.3	economic indicators. So our concerns about the quality of economic data, as well as its
0:36.4	vulnerability to political influences,
0:38.9	really warranted. I'm Alison Nathan, and this is Goldman Sachs exchanges. Each month, I speak with
0:47.5	investors, policymakers, and academics about the most pressing market-moving issues for our top of my
0:53.2	report from Goldman Sachs research.
0:55.5	This month, I first turned to Joseph Briggs, who leads the global economics team in Goldman-Sax
1:00.2	Research. I asked him to dig into why data reliability has become a greater focus recently.
1:06.1	So there's a number of different reasons why economic data quality has shifted into focus. The first and foremost
1:13.0	is that we have seen fairly large revisions to the U.S. payroll survey. That's brought concerns around
1:17.7	how reliable is the data that we're collecting top of mind. There's also been a number of high
1:23.7	profile issues with funding cuts, particularly around the CPI survey.
1:30.5	And that's brought data quality issues top of mind.
1:37.2	And then President Trump's decision in August to fire the BLS commissioner has brought data quality issues definitely to the forefront.
1:39.0	There's also been a number of global data quality issues that have kept data quality
1:42.6	issues top of mind.
1:44.0	The combination of all these things have led to concerns around data quality issues that have kept data quality issues top of mind. The combination of all
1:45.0	these things have led to concerns around data quality. So when you think about the actual
1:51.2	drivers of these concerns about data reliability, what stands out the most? So there's three things
	...

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