4.1 • 650 Ratings
🗓️ 8 November 2017
⏱️ 3 minutes
🧾️ Download transcript
How quickly does the Bank of England think that the base rate will rise after its first move up? Simon Lambert looks at the figures and outlines the good, the bad and the awkward, in this excerpt from the This is Money podcast.
Click on a timestamp to play from that location
0:00.0 | Anyway, the end of 2018, bank rate is forecast to be 0.7%. |
0:06.0 | So you need to round that one up. |
0:08.0 | It shifts from 0.6 to 0.7 around the middle of next year. |
0:11.0 | So banks saying it expects another rate rise in the middle of next year. |
0:15.0 | 2019, it then sees between the third quarter and the fourth quarter, 0.8 then to 0.9. |
0:23.0 | So that is when you might expect it to move up to 1%. And then doesn't see rates rising at all in 2020. |
0:29.6 | Could that happen? If everything turns out as the Bank of England predicts in its report, then that could happen. |
0:36.0 | Or if everything doesn't turn out like that, |
0:38.1 | it could just still happen anyway. But here's three scenarios for you. The good, the bad, |
0:43.4 | and the awkward. The good scenario is everything goes better than the Bank of England thinks. |
0:49.3 | People start to get pay rises. The economy grows faster than we think it's going to grow. |
0:55.8 | Inflation comes down nicely, perhaps even quicker than we think it's going to come down. Brexit negotiations go |
0:59.7 | swimmingly. Businesses are investing. The consumer and retail figures, everything there looks |
1:06.2 | healthy. We build more homes. Everything goes well. But at that point, actually, even though inflation has come down, |
1:13.4 | what you're probably going to see is the Bank of England start to think that it can raise interest rates that little bit quicker. |
1:18.4 | Because in the back of the Bank of England's mind will be the knowledge that at some point in the future there's going to be a recession, |
1:24.9 | and the more rate rises you can get under your belt before |
1:27.6 | that recession comes, the more firepower you've got to deal with it. So that's the good scenario. |
1:32.1 | And that's good because basically it means that interest rates are going up because the economy is |
1:36.8 | doing well. And yes, that's going to be in a little bit more pain for mortgage borrowers, |
1:40.7 | but hopefully it will keep house prices down and high house prices are not a good |
1:44.3 | thing, folks, and it'll reward savers and we can all have a smile on our face. The bad scenario, |
... |
Please login to see the full transcript.
Disclaimer: The podcast and artwork embedded on this page are from This is Money, and are the property of its owner and not affiliated with or endorsed by Tapesearch.
Generated transcripts are the property of This is Money and are distributed freely under the Fair Use doctrine. Transcripts generated by Tapesearch are not guaranteed to be accurate.
Copyright © Tapesearch 2025.