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This Is Not A Drill with Gavin Esler

🇺🇦 How Far Can NATO Go?

This Is Not A Drill with Gavin Esler

Podmasters

News, Society & Culture, Politics

4.9 • 1.6K Ratings

🗓️ 6 March 2022

⏱️ 36 minutes

🧾️ Download transcript

Summary

The bogeyman of NATO expansion was Putin’s pretext to invade Ukraine. Can NATO act now to stop Russia’s war – or would that trigger nuclear conflict? Is a No-Fly Zone practical? Former NATO representative in Moscow and now Chatham House associate fellow John Lough tells Arthur Snell about the latest state of play with NATO and the long-term implications of the most dangerous security crisis in Europe since 1945. We're putting out irregular war bulletins covering different aspects of the Ukraine crisis. Help our work, and shape the next full series of Doomsday Watch, by supporting us on Patreon. Resources to help the Ukrainian people can be found here: https://ukrainewar.carrd.co/ “This operation is not playing out as Russia expected. They thought the blitzkrieg would work – but they have fatally misread Ukraine.” “Two generations of Ukrainians have been born into freedom. The heroism they’ve shown in recent days is extraordinary.” “Will we see an incident at the border as NATO attempts to deliver ammunition to Ukraine? There’s a lot of danger there.” “We are prosecuting our own hybrid warfare now – economic war… Russia will go back to the Soviet Union on steroids.” “The disaster in Ukraine can only lead to Putin leaving office a lot earlier. And it may bring the entire system down.” “Russia has entered a quagmire that will lead to an embarrassing defeat. No amount of state propaganda can cover up that.” DOOMSDAY WATCH was written and presented by Arthur Snell, and produced by Robin Leeburn with Jacob Archbold. Theme tune and original music by Paul Hartnoll. Group Editor: Andrew Harrison. DOOMSDAY WATCH is a Podmasters production. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Transcript

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0:00.0

I'm Arthur Snell. A major war is taking place on the European continent with Russia's invasion of Ukraine.

0:08.0

We'll be releasing a series of special episodes to help you understand the background to this crisis as it unfolds.

0:14.0

This is Doomsday Watch.

0:22.0

In late January, we spoke to John Luff, former NATO representative in Moscow,

0:27.0

and now an associate fellow of the Russia and Eurasia program at Chatham House.

0:32.0

He rejoins us today to update us on the current state of play in NATO,

0:36.0

the likely trajectory for Western powers role in this conflict,

0:40.0

and the long-term implications for the global war.

0:46.0

John, good evening.

0:48.0

Good evening.

0:49.0

John, we spoke about a month ago,

0:51.0

and we were talking about whether or not Vladimir Putin would make

0:54.0

the tragic era of invading Ukraine.

0:57.0

That discussion is now over. A full-scale invasion is underway,

1:01.0

and the question now is really how NATO should respond.

1:05.0

As a former NATO official and someone who's been looking at these issues for decades,

1:10.0

what are your thoughts on that question?

1:14.0

Well, my immediate thoughts are that this operation is not playing out the way the Russians expected.

1:23.0

They thought the Blitzkrieg would work.

1:26.0

They get keyed quickly.

1:28.0

They'd be able to decapitate the leadership of the country,

1:31.0

and then probably install some leadership to their taste,

...

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