How economists (and TikTok) know if a recession is coming

Planet Money

NPR

Business, News

4.6 • 29.8K Ratings

🗓️ 21 May 2025

⏱️ 24 minutes

🔗️ Recording | iTunes | RSS

🧾️ Download transcript

Summary

Lately we've noticed that something we think about all the time here at Planet Money is having a viral moment: recession indicators!

From the more practical (like sales for lipstick going up and men's underwear going down) to the absurd and nonsensical (like babysitter buns coming back into style?) — people are posting to social media every little sign they see that a recession is coming. And we LOVE it. Because between the trade war and the tariffs and the stock market, there has been a lot of economic uncertainty over the last few months and we want to talk about it, too.

Today on the show — we dig into the slightly wonkier indicators that economists look at when they're trying to answer the question behind the viral internet trend: Is a recession coming?

This episode of Planet Money was produced by James Sneed. It was edited by Marianne McCune, fact-checked by Sarah McClure, and engineered by Cena Loffredo. Alex Goldmark is our executive producer.

Find more Planet Money: Facebook / Instagram / TikTok / Our weekly Newsletter.

Help support Planet Money and hear our bonus episodes by subscribing to Planet Money+ in Apple Podcasts or at plus.npr.org/planetmoney.

Music: Source Audio - "The Shirt Still Fits," "Chameleon Panther Style," and "Nighthawk."

Learn more about sponsor message choices: podcastchoices.com/adchoices

NPR Privacy Policy

Transcript

Click on a timestamp to play from that location

0:00.0	This is Planet Money from NPR.
0:06.1	It has been an unusual last few months for economics watchers on social media.
0:13.8	Yeah, if you've been the TikTokin and the Snapchat and the Instagram and blue skying.
0:19.1	That's what they say. They say all those as verbs.
0:21.1	Perhaps you have noticed a trend, friends. Suddenly, something that we here at Planet Money
0:26.0	are thinking about all the time is kind of having a viral moment. Recession indicators.
0:32.5	Oh yeah. Allow us a quick tour through TikTok to demonstrate. Example one, when the restaurant, five guys, you know, burgers and fries, announced it was
0:41.2	testing out a combo meal, a value meal, really, for the first time ever?
0:46.1	Child is getting so bad out here.
0:47.3	That is a recession indicator, says TikTok user the Simply Simone.
0:52.5	Little burger, little fry, and I believe a small drink, which honestly is basically a kid's meal.
0:58.4	Baby, you know what's bad when five guys is actually willing out combo mirror.
1:01.7	Now, five guys did tell us little does not mean kids' size, but like, whatever, you get the idea.
1:05.7	Example number two comes from TikTok user Bryce Gruber.
1:09.6	Recession, I can tell you if there's going to be a recession.
1:12.8	If you go to the bar and there are little dishes of wasabi peas out, recession, you're
1:18.5	presumably because those, I guess, are relatively cheap as bar snacks go is the indicator.
1:25.6	Yeah. And example three?
1:27.2	No, you don't understand. Alex Earls bun at Coachella is a the indicator. Yeah. And example three? No, you don't understand.
1:28.5	Alex Earle's bun at Coachella is a recession indicator.
1:31.8	Oh, correct.
1:32.7	TikTok user Elisha Berman.
	...

Please login to see the full transcript.

Previous episode | Next episode

Disclaimer: The podcast and artwork embedded on this page are from NPR, and are the property of its owner and not affiliated with or endorsed by Tapesearch.

Generated transcripts are the property of NPR and are distributed freely under the Fair Use doctrine. Transcripts generated by Tapesearch are not guaranteed to be accurate.