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Science Quickly

How COVID-19 Decreases Weather Forecast Accuracy

Science Quickly

Scientific American

Science

4.2639 Ratings

🗓️ 23 July 2020

⏱️ 3 minutes

🧾️ Download transcript

Summary

Meteorologists take advantage of weather data collected by commercial jetliners at different altitudes and locations. Fewer flights mean less data. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Transcript

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0:00.0

Understanding the human body is a team effort. That's where the Yachtel group comes in.

0:05.8

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0:11.0

Yacold also partners with nature portfolio to advance gut microbiome science through the global grants for gut health, an investigator-led research program.

0:19.6

To learn more about Yachtolt, visit yawcult.co.

0:22.7

.jp. That's Y-A-K-U-L-T.C-O.jp. When it comes to a guide for your gut, count on Yacolt.

0:33.5

This is Scientific American 60-second science. I'm Julia Rosen. Here are two things that you probably

0:40.7

didn't think were connected, the COVID-19 pandemic and weather forecasts. But there is a link.

0:49.0

Commercial air travel. As jetliners carry passengers around the world, they also collect vital weather

0:55.0

measurements, like air temperature and wind speed. During the pandemic, however, air travel has come

1:00.3

almost to a halt. In February, let's say we have 100%. And then in March, we go down by half,

1:07.4

and April go down by another half. So currently, possibly we just have one

1:12.5

quarter of aircraft running. So you can imagine the gap of observations.

1:17.7

Ying Chen, a meteorologist at the University of Lancaster in England. To create weather forecasts,

1:24.2

meteorologists need to feed accurate information about current weather conditions into their models.

1:29.5

And planes are one of the best ways to get such info, since they sample the atmosphere at different

1:34.3

altitudes and locations. But with the coronavirus grounding flights around the world,

1:39.5

meteorologists are feeling the loss.

1:41.3

I have analyzed three months of spring, which is March, April, and May,

1:46.9

and I see temperature, wind speed, forecast accuracy all goes down.

1:52.6

Forecast quality declined the most for long-range projections and over remote areas where

1:57.5

planes are one of the few sources of data. In Greenland, for example, the accuracy

2:01.7

of temperature forecasts has decreased by as much as 3.5 degrees Fahrenheit. Areas with heavy

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