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The Journal.

How Betting on U.S. Politics Is Getting Big

The Journal.

The Wall Street Journal

Daily News, Business News, News

4.25.3K Ratings

🗓️ 9 September 2024

⏱️ 17 minutes

🧾️ Download transcript

Summary

WSJ’s Alexander Osipovich explores the world of political betting. We meet a trader making big money making predictions on the upcoming U.S. elections over a platform called Polymarket and examine the fight that is brewing with regulators over the practice. Further Reading: - Meet the Traders Making Money Off the Trump Shooting and Biden’s Stumbles - Judge Holds Off on Allowing Election Bets–For Now - The Hot New Trade That Everyone Is Watching: Will Biden Drop Out? Further Listening: - How Gambling Scandals Are Rocking Sports Leagues Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Transcript

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0:00.0

Ryan is a Canadian university student who follows US politics closely.

0:10.0

So when former President Donald Trump was nearly assassinated back in July, Ryan, we agreed to use only his first name, heard about it just minutes after the story broke.

0:21.0

And I see that people are saying Trump just got shot. So I go to the live stream and I see

0:27.9

secret service pushing him away. There's confusion everywhere. A big event like this is market shaping news and Ryan

0:38.8

had money on the line not necessarily in the stock market, but in a growing market based on betting.

0:46.4

Ryan had a number of bets going on the US presidential election, and if Trump

0:50.9

had been killed, that would have changed everything.

0:54.0

But of course, Trump survived.

0:57.0

And I go on to Twitter and I see people starting to say,

1:00.0

Trump just locked the election.

1:02.0

He's the winner, he's resilient, Trump is going to win now.

1:07.3

Ryan logged on to the site that he uses to make bets on American politics. He goes by the name

1:12.4

Phantom Betts online. He quickly

1:14.7

bought more shares on Trump to win the election. When the photo of Trump raising

1:19.4

his fist began making the rounds, the share price soared.

1:23.6

And that was when Ryan sold his position

1:26.0

for a tidy sum of $700.

1:28.7

It's all about riding the wave, writing the narratives that you see. I want to catch a narrative before the public does, right? I buy the rumors, sell the news. I just sensed that the price would move and I was right.

1:45.0

Sites like the one Ryan is using are on the rise.

1:48.0

Their popularity is leading to a wave of betting on political events in the U.S.

1:52.0

And it's setting up a clash with U.S. regulators. of betting on political events in the US,

1:52.6

and it's setting up a clash with US regulators.

...

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