How Apple Became So Reliant on China & What it Means For Their Future

a16z Podcast

a16z

Science, Innovation, Business, Entrepreneurship, Culture, Disruption, Software Eating The World, Technology

4.4 • 1.1K Ratings

🗓️ 18 June 2025

⏱️ 49 minutes

🔗️ Recording | iTunes | RSS

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Summary

What if the rise of Apple also built modern China? a16z’s Erik Torenberg is joined by board partner and former Microsoft Windows chief Steven Sinofsky to unpack how Apple’s pursuit of design excellence and supply chain scale catalyzed China’s manufacturing superpower status - and why that partnership is now under intense scrutiny. Inspired by the book Apple in China (but not a book review), the episode dives deep into: - The early days of Apple’s shift to Chinese manufacturing - What experts got wrong in 1999 about trade, globalization, and China’s trajectory - How Tim Cook’s operational playbook reshaped the global tech industry - Behind-the-scenes stories from Microsoft’s own hardware battles and Surface launch - Why Apple’s entanglement with China may now be a strategic liability - What COVID revealed about fragile global dependencies — and where innovation goes next - How national policy, intellectual property, and AI intersect in the new industrial era The episode opens with a few reactions to WWDC: Apple’s new UI, the iPad’s evolving role, and why Apple’s AI story still feels unfinished - before zooming out into one of the most consequential tech and geopolitical stories of our time.

Transcript

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0:00.0	If you look back in 1990, it's like completely upside down from today.
0:05.0	As Tim Cook says, people think that China is about cheap manufacturing,
0:10.0	but it's the skills they have.
0:12.0	For the global view of trade, it was working exactly as planned for everybody.
0:17.0	All the experts in 1999 were like two things.
0:21.4	Yay for global trade.
0:23.0	This is what we all want.
0:24.3	And also, don't worry.
0:26.5	China, they're going to stay a third world dictatorship forever.
0:30.5	They couldn't have been more wrong.
0:34.4	What if the rise of Apple also built modern China?
0:43.3	Today's guest is Steven Sinovsky, board partner at A16Z and former president of Microsoft's Windows Division. He led major efforts behind office, Windows, and the introduction of Surface, and he's one of the sharpest minds in tech.
0:49.3	We kick off with reactions to WWDC, Apple's new UI, the iPad's big software shift, and why Apple's AI story still feels unfinished.
0:58.0	Then we dive into the heart of the conversation, Apple's entanglement with China, how it started, what it enabled, and whether it's now a strategic liability.
1:07.0	Let's get into it.
1:09.0	As a reminder, the content here is for informational purposes only.
1:13.8	Should not be taken as legal business, tax, or investment advice, or be used to evaluate any
1:18.1	investment or security and is not directed at any investors or potential investors in any A16Z fund.
1:24.3	Please note that A16Z and its affiliates may also maintain investments in the companies
1:27.8	discussed in this podcast. For more details, including a link to our investments, please
1:32.6	see A16Z.com forward slash disclosures.
1:40.2	Steven, I've been looking forward to this episode because this is a full circle moment for me.
	...

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