Hey, everybody. Welcome to the Michael Still podcast. Yes, it is time to get yo geek on because we are going to get into the numbers. We're going to get into the analysis of how and why oh, dare I say it.

The Democrats can hold the house this November. What did you just say that out loud? Yes, I did. You know why?

That's Simon Rosenberg, president of new Democrat network and the new policy institute on with me to talk about exactly how that could happen. We're going to get into all of it as we unpack the upcoming elections.

And he can do that because he's a former Clinton administration staffer, a top advisor to the D triple C their congressional campaign committee. And as I said, and as you will see, he's very optimistic, somewhat bullish on a potential blue wave this November.

Well, grab your pin, grab your calculator, grab your syllabus, grab whatever you need to grab get ready to get your geek on with me and Simon Rosenberg right here on the Michael Still podcast after this quick break.

Everybody, like I said, welcome to the podcast and you know, this is time to geek out because that's what we're going to do. I've got one of the best data polling geeks right now. And that is my man Simon Rosenberg, I'm so happy you are part of our conversation because

I'll just begin our conversation this way, my friend. There, there was a great article that was out in early August, mid August, actually, by Susan Glazer.

And the headline was, is there a serious case for a not awful election for Democrats this fall. And in it she, she notes, quote, seven years after Trump formally interpolitics capturing a hold on the national imagination, which remains undiminished despite the defeat and disgrace.

And the president and a full battery of metrics suggests that Trump's Republicans are poised to reap significant gains in this fall's midterm elections, the conventional wisdom.

And why she did would indicate that the Democrats are all but certain to lose the house in 2022 and very likely the Senate to house them ever.

There's this quote that sticks out there to goes, but in the age of Trump, nothing is normal. Simon Rosenberg, the president of the liberal think tank, the new Democrat network and veteran strategist told me nothing is following traditional physics and rules.

So why would this midterm, I begin with you one liberal as they put what they call you liberal president of the national, Democrat network.

Yeah.

What, what, what do you see? Because I agree with you. This is not just a liberal thing, folks.

They're conservatives like myself who see this landscape shaping up a lot differently. Simon is all yours. Yeah, listen, I think that, you know, once the Republicans made a decision to run towards maga in record numbers.

So I mean, we had record turnout in 2018 record turnout in 2020 more people had voted against maga than any other political ideology in American history. And once the Republicans chose to run towards that politics, which had just failed them so miserably.

It meant that this was likely to be a competitive election or a election that might not actually follow traditional midterm physics, as we call it in our in our business.

So last November, you know, I was looking around thinking that that might be the case, right, because maga was this force that drove the outcome the last two elections.

And we started seeing in the data. And we've talked about this Michael, we started seeing in the data even last fall and winter that there was what they call a decoupling between Biden's approval rating.

So I think that's all the congressional generic, which is, are you going to vote Democrat or Republican for Congress? And so you're in my explanation for that was that, you know, people could be disappointed in Biden, but definitely not want to vote for the Republicans. They just voted against them twice and big record numbers.

The Republicans, I think, made a huge error strategically by believing that disappointment in Biden was just going to translate into votes for them. And what was going to need what was going to have to happen, right, was that something was going to have to wake up this anti maga majority.

That this durable anti maga majority, and that's exactly what's happened over this spring and summer.

...