How accurate are economic forecasts?

Make Me Smart

Marketplace

News, Business

4.6 • 5.4K Ratings

🗓️ 20 April 2023

⏱️ 20 minutes

🔗️ Recording | iTunes | RSS

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Summary

Earlier this month, the International Monetary Fund put out its weakest medium-term projection for global economic growth since 1990. This had one listener wondering: How accurate are the IMF’s predictions? We’ll get into it and answer more of your questions, like why the U.S. Postal Service still delivers six days a week and what is the carbon footprint of space travel. Plus, we’ll explain why the Federal Reserve is losing billions every week.

Here’s everything we talked about today:

“The IMF’s 5-year growth forecast is its weakest since 1990” from Quartz

“IMF Forecasts: Process, Quality, and Country Perspectives” from the International Monetary Fund

“Economic Forecasting Is Really Difficult. Just Ask the IMF” from Bloomberg

“The U.S. Postal Service and Six-Day Delivery: History, Issues, and Current Legislation” from the Congressional Research Service

“Six-days-a-week mail delivery saved; Biden signs Postal bill” from AP News

“Formerly a cash cow, the Fed is now losing ‘about $2 billion a week’” from Marketplace

“What if the Federal Reserve books losses because of its quantitative easing?” from the Brookings Institution

“The pollution caused by rocket launches” from the BBC

“How the billionaire space race could be one giant leap for pollution” from The Guardian

“Fact check: Jeff Bezos’ New Shepard rocket launch didn’t emit carbon” from USA Today

“Make Me Smart” has been nominated for a Webby Award! We are honored, but we can’t win without your support. You can vote for “Make Me Smart” until Thursday by going to marketplace.org/votemms.

Transcript

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0:56.2	Ask actual economists Wendy Carlin and Samuel Bowles your econ questions register and
1:02.3	get the details at Marketplace.org slash crash course.
1:11.0	Let's go.
1:15.0	Hello and happy Wednesday.
1:18.8	I'm Kimberly Adams.
1:19.8	Welcome back to Make Me Smart where we make today make sense.
1:23.9	I'm Kyle Rizdal.
1:24.9	It is what do you know?
1:26.6	What do you know?
1:27.6	What do you want?
1:28.6	No Wednesday.
1:29.6	The day we get to answer your questions, if you've got one for us that you like us to
1:32.8	answer, the voice mail has come to us at 508.
1:35.5	You be smart.
	...

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