Hour 2 of the Clay Travis and Buck Sexton Show is a data-driven, wide-ranging discussion that blends electoral politics, economic anxiety, demographics, and national security, with a strong emphasis on facts, numbers, and long-term trends. The hour begins with a full-segment interview featuring Ryan Girdusky, host of It’s a Numbers Game and author of The National Populist Substack, who breaks down what polling actually shows about President Donald Trump’s Iran policy. Girdusky explains that while core MAGA support remains high, skepticism and uncertainty have grown among Trump’s broader coalition—especially among white voters without college degrees—largely driven by rising gas prices and inflation fears. He stresses that foreign policy support erodes quickly once voters feel economic pain at home, and that gas prices are one of the most visible and emotionally potent indicators of inflation heading into an election year.

The discussion then turns to how long voter anger over gas prices tends to last and how it could impact the 2026 midterms. Girdusky argues that timing is critical: if high gas prices disrupt summer travel plans, that resentment can linger into the fall, particularly in swing states and battleground Senate races like Alaska and Maine, where fuel costs are among the highest in the country. Clay and Buck debate whether gas-price frustration fades quickly once prices fall, or whether the emotional impact of a “ruined summer” could damage Republicans months later, even if prices normalize by October.

The second half of Hour 2 pivots to what Girdusky describes as a far more serious long-term issue than climate change: collapsing birth rates. Drawing on new CDC data from early 2026, he explains that the U.S. fertility rate is now around 1.57 children per woman—well below the 2.1 replacement level—and that this is part of a global trend affecting nearly every developed country. Particularly striking is his analysis showing sharp, double-digit declines in births among immigrant populations, which he links directly to Trump-era immigration enforcement and self-deportation trends. Girdusky describes fertility as a “lagging indicator” of immigration policy, arguing that fewer births now reflect fewer new arrivals and fewer undocumented immigrants settling long term.

Even more surprising, Girdusky highlights dramatic changes in Black American birth rates, noting that for the first time on record, White women are now having more children per capita than Black women. He details how births among Black women have dropped nearly 10% year over year, driven not by abortion access but by a collapse in teen pregnancy and a surge in college attendance among Black women—both of which delay childbearing and reduce total family size. The hosts discuss how births are increasingly concentrated among women in their 30s, making it mathematically harder to reach replacement-level fertility, and how many Americans are having fewer children than they say they want.

The hour closes with extensive listener interaction around the Strait of Hormuz, oil markets, and national leverage over Iran. Clay responds to strong feedback—both supportive and critical—clarifying his argument that while high gas prices are politically dangerous, America’s status as a global energy superpower has fundamentally changed the strategic pressure compared to the 1980s and 1990s. Calls explore whether Iran “controls” the Strait of Hormuz or has effectively taken it hostage through terror threats, why removing every risk isn’t possible even after major military strikes, and whether long-term solutions like regional pipelines could eventually bypass the strait entirely. Clay and Buck repeatedly emphasize the difference between military control and terrorism risk, arguing that even one missile or drone is enough to scare off tanker traffic regardless of Iran’s weakened navy.

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