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War on the Rocks

Holding Ground: Ukraine, Russia, and the Politics of Persistence

War on the Rocks

War on the Rocks

News, Politics

4.61.1K Ratings

🗓️ 15 October 2025

⏱️ 38 minutes

🧾️ Download transcript

Summary

Michael Kofman and Dara Massicot join Ryan to discuss the state of the front, how Ukraine and Russia are staying in the fight, the possible provision of Tomahawk Land Attack Missiles, contingencies expected and unexpected, the failures of Russian diplomacy, and what the most important developments of the year so far have been. 

Transcript

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0:00.0

You are listening to the War on the Rocks podcast on Strategy, Defense, and Foreign Affairs.

0:10.9

My name is Ryan Evans.

0:12.7

I'm sitting here with Darmacico and Michael Kaufman of the Karning Endowment.

0:18.4

And we're here to talk about the war between Russia and Ukraine.

0:21.3

Thank you both for joining me again.

0:23.4

Thanks for having us.

0:24.1

Yeah, it's good to be back.

0:25.8

So let's walk through the situation on the front.

0:29.5

What's the state of play?

0:31.1

So maybe I'll start off and just describe it as we are still in an offensive period in October.

0:39.3

But as best I can tell, we have Russian forces continuing to try to advance focusing partly on the same axis in Danyetsk around Pekrovsk,

0:51.8

secondary axis trying to push into Nupbrogolis from Danyetsk,

0:56.3

the southwestern Deneuts, a lot of fighting taking place there,

1:00.1

and also in and around the northern part of Liman and Kupianski around the Osco River,

1:08.0

which is a secondary front, but it's important because they continue to

1:11.1

try to advance in an effort to operationally envelop the region of Dynetsk. Now, they've not made

1:18.2

considerable progress towards that goal, but the fighting continues and fighting continues around

1:24.2

North of Prokroscan der repealier as well. Russian forces redeployed a lot of naval infantry off the Sume axis.

1:31.3

Ukraine also redeployed its air assault brigades,

1:34.3

and they've sort of all reconvened in some respects in Dignettes

1:37.3

and some have gone to Zopresia.

1:39.6

And secondarily, we have the respect of strike campaigns against critical infrastructure.

...

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