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More or Less: Behind the Stats

Heart Age Calculator; Danish Sperm Imports; Counting Goats

More or Less: Behind the Stats

BBC

Business, Mathematics, Science, News Commentary, News

4.63.5K Ratings

🗓️ 7 September 2018

⏱️ 24 minutes

🧾️ Download transcript

Summary

Tim Harford questions the usefulness of a popular heart age calculator.

Transcript

Click on a timestamp to play from that location

0:00.0

Hello and welcome to more or less, the program which lets numbers hit all the high notes while we laid out a tight groove in the background.

0:07.5

So will I, the Ringo star of statistics?

0:11.0

Well, you said it proves not me. That's Ruth Alexander. My producer, she will be back later. I'm Tim Halford.

0:17.0

Then this week we'll ask whether almost half the sperm donated in the UK is traceable back to a single busy fellow in Denmark.

0:25.0

I think you can guess the answer to that one already.

0:27.0

Also, women and goats, which of these two valued groups is more widely celebrated in British statues and monuments, the answer may surprise you.

0:36.0

And we're often told that the UK economy runs on services, but what does that mean?

0:41.0

But before all that, earlier this week the news was full of headlines such as these.

0:46.0

4 in 5 adults at risk of early death.

0:50.0

Almost 80% of people have heart age higher than real age.

0:54.0

4 in 5 people at risk of early death from heart attack or stroke. Doctors call figures for England alarming.

1:00.0

These headlines came from public health England. They were drawing attention to the results obtained from a heart age calculator on the NHS website.

1:10.0

The test has been taken 1.9 million times. Nearly four times out of five, the calculations have come out with a heart age older than the person's actual age.

1:22.0

The heart age comparison is not to someone with an average heart, but to someone of that age without raised risk factors.

1:31.0

So how does this online calculator work?

1:35.0

It asks a series of questions about age, gender, ethnicity, height, weight, smoking status, medical history, although none about diet or exercise.

1:45.0

It also asks for your cholesterol levels and your blood pressure. Many of our loyal listeners have done this test and they aren't happy.

1:54.0

It's been a leading news story all day, but the quiz is very basic and if you don't know your blood pressure or cholesterol, it guesses without asking anything else.

2:03.0

My supposed heart age is one year above actual based on me not knowing these things.

2:08.0

I'm 46 and it gave me a heart age of 47, but I'm very fit and have a resting heart rate of 40 beats per minute.

2:17.0

I took the test and I believe the conclusion is spurious. I have no history of heart disease, diabetes or smoking. I'm not overweight. However, the test concluded I have a heart age of 59 and that does not correlate with my chronological age of 57.

2:32.0

Our loyal listeners as usual are smart enough to see the problem. The calculator asks for blood pressure and levels of two types of cholesterol, but if you tell it you don't know, it assumes that your levels are risky.

...

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