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The John Batchelor Show

HEADLINE: Russian War Economy Stalls as Oil Prices Decline and Sanctions Bite GUEST NAME: Michael Bernstam SUMMARY: Michael Bernstam reports that the Russian economy is struggling as global oil prices decline and sanctions increase transportation costs, l

The John Batchelor Show

John Batchelor

Society & Culture, Arts, News, Books

4.52.8K Ratings

🗓️ 16 October 2025

⏱️ 10 minutes

🧾️ Download transcript

Summary

HEADLINE: Russian War Economy Stalls as Oil Prices Decline and Sanctions Bite GUEST NAME: Michael Bernstam SUMMARY: Michael Bernstam reports that the Russian economy is struggling as global oil prices decline and sanctions increase transportation costs, leading to a $13 to $14 per barrel discount on Russian oil. The "military Keynesianism" economy is exhausted, resulting in staff cuts across industrial sectors. Forecasts indicate contraction in late 2025 and 2026, with the IMF lowering its growth projection for 2025 to 0.6%. Russia is avoiding sanctions by routing payments through neighbors like Kyrgyzstan, who have become major financial hubs.
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Transcript

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0:00.0

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0:24.0

This is CBS. I on the world. I'm John Batchel. The Russian economy. Michael Bernstam of the

0:29.7

Hoover Institution joins watching the Russian economy since before the war started in 22.

0:35.4

They have a headline for the BBC within hours.

0:41.0

UK targets Russian oil market and fresh sanctions.

0:46.0

Michael, my understanding is that the oil market is collapsing on Russia.

0:50.6

I don't remember if they're making profit or they're losing with every barrel of oil.

0:53.2

These additional sanctions, what will they achieve?

0:54.1

Good evening to you. Good evening to

0:55.4

you. They're very much dependent on oil, very much dependent on the gold price of oil. The

1:02.5

world price of oil is declining. Today, it is $62 per barrel. The forecast by the International

1:09.7

Energy Agency is $62 during the entire fourth quarter of 25,

1:16.3

and up to $52, down to $52 in 26.

1:21.2

And every $10 decline like this, the Russians are losing about $30 billion in their overall oil supply

1:30.8

because it is 7.3 million barrels a day. And so, these are very much reliant. And now all

1:39.3

sorts of sanctions add up because here and there, they sanction the so-called shadow fleet, the tankers that transport

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