To some extent, the Fed's job has now entered a much harder phase.

Inflation is clearly moderating.

There is a let-up, or at least some indicators, at least, in the labor data.

But at the same time, financial conditions are loosening significantly, as Wall Street

sees all those things as well.

It's one thing to be in a position to just hike into oblivion and keep the language strong.

It's another thing to try to keep everyone

in line during an in-between wait-and-see type period. Welcome back to the breakdown with me,

NLW. It's a daily podcast on macro, Bitcoin, and the big-picture power shifts remaking our world.

The breakdown is produced and distributed by CoinDesk.

What's going on, guys? It is Monday, January 30th, and today we are talking about the Fed's

potential showdown with Wall Street later this week. Before we dive into that, however,

if you are enjoying the breakdown, please go subscribe to it, give it a rating, give it a review, or if you want to dive deeper into the conversation,

come join us on the Breakers Discord. You can find a link in the show notes or go to bit.

com. L.Y slash breakdown pod. All right, team, happy Monday and welcome to the first big

macro week of 2023. The Fed has its Federal Open Markets Committee meeting on Tuesday and

Wednesday, at which point we'll likely get our first insight into how Powell and Coe are thinking

about the economy heading into this new year. So what we're going to look at today is one,

how markets are thinking about that meeting and what's likely to happen, two, why there is

something of a battle going on between Powell and stock investors. And three, what some other indicators suggest about the

other big economic question, which is, of course, recession or not. Now, by way of background,

we have been in the most aggressive monetary tightening cycle since the early 1980s. This is, of course,

...