We're hosting our first Coffee House Shots live event of 2025 on the 26th of February at the

Emmanuel Centre in Westminster. Join Michael Gove, Katie Bulls, Kate Andrews and very special guests,

Jonathan Ashworth and Robert Jenrick for a look to the year ahead. They'll be tackling such questions

as, can the Chancellor reframe the budget in her first spring statement? What will Trump's first

100 days look like? And will reform cause and upset at the local elections? For tickets,

go to spectator.co.com.uk forward slash coffeehouse live.

Hello and welcome to Coffee House Shots, the Spectator's Daily Politics Podcast.

I'm Oscar Edmondson and I'm joined today by James Heel and Kate Andrews.

Now, Kate, there has been a rate cut.

The Bank of England has cut interest rates for the third time since the inflation crisis,

taking the base rate to 4.5%.

So some good news then for Labour. Yes, it is good news. Although you could

say that this was necessary news, it is part of the recipe for kick-starting that economic growth

that Chancellor Rachel Reeves is so keen to find. As you say, Oscar, the base rate has been cut by 0.25 percentage points down to

4.5%. Historically, this remains pretty normal. But for recent years, this remains very high and still

quite painful for a lot of people. Hopefully, this will help ease cost of living pressures slightly. But for everybody who's

saying this is great news for the government, this is exactly what they wanted and needed.

Well, as I said, they needed it, yes, but it's not great news if you dig into the minutes from

the Monetary Policy Committee. They think inflation is now expected to peak this year at 3.7%.

That's almost double the bank's target.

Look, it's nothing like where we were before with double digit inflation, but they think energy prices are going to shoot up quite dramatically mid this year.

And then inflation is expected to fall back down. Much more worryingly, actually, is their new growth forecast. I mean, they've

...