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Real Vision: Finance & Investing

Grantham's GMO: Twilight of Growth Stocks w/ Matt Kadnar )

Real Vision: Finance & Investing

Real Vision

Investing, Business News, News, Business

4.11.1K Ratings

🗓️ 18 April 2021

⏱️ 55 minutes

🧾️ Download transcript

Summary

The Interview: In the wake of interviews with Jeremy Grantham and his recent heir apparent Ben Inker, managing editor Ed Harrison welcomes a third member of GMO, portfolio manager Matt Kadnar, to Real Vision. Kadnar shares with Harrison his approach to asset allocation and risk management at this unique market juncture. Kadnar thinks a cyclical bout of inflation could be due, but is skeptical that a 1970s-era level of secular inflation will linger for long since these serious periods of inflation are caused by a wage price spiral and unemployment remains high. Kadnar argues that if the market prices in more inflation, interest rates will continue to rise, and this will likely cause high-flying growth stocks to return to the ground. This is in line with Kadnar's investment framework, which as he describes to Harrison is dependent on mean reversion in the long-run. Kadnar is not a believer in gold but notes that if real rates become sufficiently negative, gold begins to make more sense within a portfolio. Recorded on February 23, 2021. Key learnings: Kadnar believes that value stocks will likely outperform growth stocks over the long-run. He argues that Treasury bonds do not offer the same protection from equity drawdowns that they once did, and as such, he is constructive on asset backed-securities to play this role. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Transcript

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0:00.0

At Harrison here for Real Vision, I am talking to Matt Cadner, Portfolio Manager at GMO. He's also a senior member of their acid allocation team. Matt, welcome to Real Vision.

0:25.0

Thanks, Ed. Great to be with you.

0:27.0

You know, you are the third person from GMO who we've spoken to over the last year. We spoke to Jeremy Grantham.

0:34.0

I spoke to Ben Inker and now I have the pleasure of speaking to you. Your company has a storied history of really getting markets right, particularly the Internet bubble.

0:48.0

And also, I would say that you also got the housing bubble very right as well.

0:54.0

Yeah, it's a wonderful place, deep to tradition. There's a lot of really smart people, really good people. And it's really been a fantastic place. I've been there almost 16 years.

1:06.0

It's been a fantastic place to learn and grow over that time period and certainly working with Jeremy and Ben all these years has been fantastic as well.

1:16.0

Yeah, and you know, I actually right before this interview, I was looking at one of my old friend Barry Rittholz's commentaries and he had you for his master class interview up at your offices in Boston. This was in 2018.

1:32.0

The first thing that caught my eye was that Barry as a lawyer, he was talking to you about the law and how, and you know, actually I worked at a paralegal way long ago.

1:43.0

Sorry to hear that.

1:44.0

It was just a miserable life and you moved into the wonderful world of finance. Talk to me a little bit about that before we get into your views on what's happening to that.

1:55.0

Yeah, sure. So, so I was toiling away as an attorney here in Boston. I was doing a lot of medical malpractice defense. So working for, you know, the Harvard hospitals or New England Medical Center hospitals.

2:07.0

And it was really miserable because it's it's definitely brass knuckle type litigation. And it's very emotional because, you know, people were either heard or they they, you know, somebody had died and you're talking to their relatives.

2:20.0

So it was really a pretty miserable existence for a young associate that wasn't really someone who wanted to kind of get in there and fight all the time.

2:29.0

I ended up being able to make a transition from the men mal defense work to working at a broker dealers, so I worked at LPL financial services in their legal legal office for a couple, couple years.

2:43.0

And I thought, oh, it's good. I'm going to move into finance. I have as a finance underground major. And so it'll be a lot more stayed. It'll be a lot less emotional. It'll be great.

2:53.0

But I realized is that people care as much about their financial health as they do their health health. And so the emotions were we're definitely part of that as well. And then you also had to deal with responding to the government and government.

3:09.0

And so that was pretty miserable as well. And so my father in law gave me a book. And that book was what colors your parachute. And he knew I was pretty miserable. And he said, hey, kid, you know, what he had learned when, you know, he was young, he's a few, if you, if you never work, if you enjoy what you're doing, you never work a day in your life. And so I was trying to figure out what I would enjoy doing. And so this book what colors your parachute got me to understand what I enjoy doing.

3:38.0

What I enjoyed doing was finance and I also enjoyed communicating and talking to people. And so I was able to finagle a job at Putnam right before the internet bubble popped working in their their institutional sales team. And that was just such a breath of fresh air versus the, you know, the legal world and the antagonism of the legal world.

4:06.0

It's just so fun that I could, you know, what I enjoyed doing what I enjoyed reading about was something that I could get paid for. And so that really was the transition. And I used to see people that I, you know, you would have cases against practice with.

4:19.0

And they would say, I go, you know, where have you been? I said, oh, well, I've changed careers. And invariably, the response was some form of, oh, you got out.

4:29.0

As if you, as you escaped from, from, from star like 13. And so it's really been a ton of fun ever since.

...

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