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Odd Lots

Goldman’s Jeff Currie: It’s a Commodities Supercycle, and We Still Haven’t Hit Max Pain

Odd Lots

Bloomberg

News, Investing, Business, News Commentary, Business News

4.41.6K Ratings

🗓️ 18 October 2021

⏱️ 46 minutes

🧾️ Download transcript

Summary

Back in January, we spoke with Jeff Currie, the Global Head of Commodities Research at Goldman Sachs. At the time, he was bullish on the commodities complex for several reasons. Since then, of course, we've seen several markets go on an absolute tear and to a degree that's taken even him by surprise. The bad news for commodities consumers? We still haven't hit max pain. On this episode, we speak again with Jeff about what's driving prices higher and why he sees stronger price increases over the next several months.

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Transcript

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0:00.0

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0:02.4

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Apollo does the heavy lifting by providing customized capital solutions.

0:08.9

Apollo, investing in tomorrow, today, learn more at Apollo.com.

0:30.9

Hello and welcome to another episode of the AdLots podcast. I'm Joe Weisenthal.

0:44.7

And I'm Tracy Alloway. So Tracy, you see, we just got the latest CPI report?

0:49.7

I did indeed. It looks like CPI came in slightly hotter than expected.

0:56.4

Like not a huge deviation from the forecast. But of course,

1:00.3

everyone's talking about the idea that, well, all of this was supposed to be transitory.

1:04.2

And yet, you know, here we are almost two years into the global pandemic.

1:08.4

And it doesn't seem like any of this is going away.

1:11.6

Right. And so, of course, there's this debate about what transitory means.

1:15.4

Does it mean pandemic related or does it mean brief?

1:18.6

And so we're sorry to split hairs on that.

1:21.4

And then there's also, you know, of course, the deviation between headline CPI,

1:25.8

which includes energy prices and core, which doesn't, but the degree to which you could really

1:31.6

ever like separate out commodities from the fact that commodities go into everything

1:36.3

is kind of impossible. And with the exception of a few things, I mean, we are on a massive

1:43.6

commodity slash energy bull run.

1:46.6

Yeah. So the crazy thing here is that people were worried about higher inflation,

1:52.0

even before the commodity's market really started going nuts, like just in the past

1:58.2

month or so. I mean, I'm looking at some of the energy headlines that have just come over

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