Gold, Oil, and Rare Earths: Commodities on the Move

Exchanges

Goldman Sachs

Business

4.4 • 1K Ratings

🗓️ 28 October 2025

⏱️ 13 minutes

🔗️ Recording | iTunes | RSS

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Summary

With gold, oil, and rare earth minerals making headlines this year, Goldman Sachs Research’s Daan Struyven shares his views on what’s ahead for these markets and how commodities can fit into portfolios today. This episode was recorded on October 27, 2025. The opinions and views expressed herein are as of the date of publication, subject to change without notice, and may not necessarily reflect the institutional views of Goldman Sachs or its affiliates. The material provided is intended for informational purposes only, and does not constitute investment advice, a recommendation from any Goldman Sachs entity to take any particular action, or an offer or solicitation to purchase or sell any securities or financial products. This material may contain forward-looking statements. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Neither Goldman Sachs nor any of its affiliates make any representations or warranties, express or implied, as to the accuracy or completeness of the statements or information contained herein and disclaim any liability whatsoever for reliance on such information for any purpose. Each name of a third-party organization mentioned is the property of the company to which it relates, is used here strictly for informational and identification purposes only and is not used to imply any ownership or license rights between any such company and Goldman Sachs. A transcript is provided for convenience and may differ from the original video or audio content. Goldman Sachs is not responsible for any errors in the transcript. This material should not be copied, distributed, published, or reproduced in whole or in part or disclosed by any recipient to any other person without the express written consent of Goldman Sachs. Disclosures applicable to research with respect to issuers, if any, mentioned herein are available through your Goldman Sachs representative or at http://www.gs.com/research/hedge.html Goldman Sachs does not endorse any candidate or any political party. © 2025 Goldman Sachs. All rights reserved. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Transcript

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0:00.0	We've seen some really significant moves in the commodity markets of late.
0:09.0	Crude oil is rising on the back of new U.S. sanctions on Russia.
0:12.0	Rare earth minerals are playing a central role in U.S.-China tensions,
0:16.0	and gold has given back some of the huge gains it's made this year.
0:19.0	So what's ahead for these markets,
0:21.2	and how can commodities fit into portfolios today? I'm Alison Nathan, and this is Goldman Sachs
0:29.3	exchanges. This week, I'm joined by Don Strohven, co-head of commodities research in Goldman Sachs
0:34.3	Research. Don, welcome back to the program. Thanks for having me, Allison.
0:38.4	So there's so much going on right now with commodities, but let's start with crude oil. I think
0:42.2	our listeners have probably heard about the news that the U.S. is imposing new sanctions on
0:47.1	Russian oil. But just bring us up to date. What has happened so far and how important is that
0:52.1	to oil markets? So the two largest Russian oil producers, Ross Neft and Luke Oil, got hit with fresh sanctions by the US.
1:01.0	Together, those companies have been exporting 3 million barrels per day of oil year to date.
1:06.0	That's a lot of oil, roughly 3% of the global market.
1:09.0	Our simulations suggest that prices could end up almost $20 per barrel higher in 2026 if you
1:16.3	were to see a sustained and large disruption in the export volumes from those two companies,
1:21.3	assuming other OPEC plus producers like Saudi Arabia don't fill in the shortfall.
1:26.1	In practice, we think the impact
1:27.5	will be likely more limited to global oil imports because Core OPEC has spare capacity
1:32.8	to offset some of the shortfall. I would expect some of the buyers of Russian crew to get
1:38.0	exemptions via licenses. And third, trade networks often get reorganized in the aftermath
1:43.2	of sanctions. Perhaps some of the Russian oil
	...

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