GM90: The Quiet Repricing of Reality ft. Adam Rozencwajg & Cem Karsan
Top Traders Unplugged
Niels Kaastrup-Larsen
4.8 • 712 Ratings
🗓️ 5 November 2025
⏱️ 71 minutes
🧾️ Download transcript
Summary
Power shifts quietly, until it doesn’t. In this episode, Niels Kaastrup-Larsen and Cem Karsan are joined by Adam Rozencwajg to trace the slow fracture of a system built on leverage, politics, and belief. From the echo of LBJ’s confrontation with the Fed to today’s invisible coercions, they explore how monetary regimes die, not in crisis, but in exhaustion. Inflation returns as behavior, debt becomes geometry, and commodities reclaim their voice. Through the lenses of shale decline, Venezuela’s unrealized oil, and the steady ascent of gold, this conversation reveals a cycle completing itself. The story isn’t new. Only the setting has changed.
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Episode TimeStamps:
00:00 - Introduction
03:12 - The rise of carry trades and the rhythm of global financial cycles
08:44 - Political pressure, Fed history, and lessons from past monetary regimes
13:47 - The end of carry, the dawn of stagflation, and the return of real assets
20:47 - Inflation’s return, debt dynamics, and the coming shift in the monetary system
27:33 - Gold, negative real rates, and the psychology of inflation
34:57 - The debt spiral, liquidity traps, and the quiet monetization of risk
41:40 - Energy policy, shale decline, and the politics of “Drill Baby Drill”
49:10 - Venezuela’s oil chessboard and the geopolitical struggle for supply
55:48 - Oil’s forgotten value and echoes of past energy cycles
01:00:19 - Gold, miners, and the new hierarchy of precious assets
01:07:23 - Helium, the next frontier, and closing reflections on a changing world
Copyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
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Transcript
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| 0:00.0 | And so that's, I think, what's a little bit of the paradox of inflation is that in the near term, it's very formulaic. |
| 0:12.8 | And I can paint a picture that if energy prices go up, you're almost sure to get relatively sharp inflationary pressures. |
| 0:20.4 | You have a lot of dovishness. You have a lot of money that's already been printed, quite. You have a lot of doveshness. |
| 0:22.6 | You have a lot of money that's already been printed, quite frankly, |
| 0:24.6 | and a lot of dovishness, I think, in the future. |
| 0:26.6 | And psychology right now, I think, is really going down |
| 0:31.6 | to razor's edge and could very easily tip into inflationary psychology. |
| 0:35.6 | So I think all those things together means the risk is quite high that you're going to get an inflationary boat. |
| 0:42.2 | Imagine spending an hour with the world's greatest traders. Imagine learning from their |
| 0:47.1 | experiences, their successes, and their failures. Imagine no more. Welcome to Top Traders Unplugged, the place where you can learn from the best hedge fund managers in the world, |
| 0:58.5 | so you can take your manager due diligence or investment career to the next level. |
| 1:03.1 | Before we begin today's conversation, remember to keep two things in mind. |
| 1:07.1 | All the discussion we'll have about investment performance is about the past, |
| 1:15.3 | and past performance does not guarantee or even infer anything about future performance. |
| 1:27.3 | Also understand that there's a significant risk of financial loss with all investment strategies, and you need to request and understand the specific risks from the investment manager about their product before you make investment decisions. |
| 1:32.0 | Here's your host, veteran hedge fund manager, Niels Kostrup Larson. |
| 1:40.7 | Welcome and welcome back to another edition of the Global Macro Series, |
| 1:43.5 | where today, as usual, I'm joined by my co-host, Jim Kazan, |
| 1:45.0 | as well as a returning and very popular guest to the show, namely Adam Rosenzweig, whom we last spoke to about eight |
| 1:50.4 | months ago. Adam, it's always a pleasure to have you back. How are you doing? Very well. Nice to talk |
| 1:56.1 | to you both. I'm happy to be here. Yeah. And you, Jim, I know it seems like so long since we've done one of the |
| 2:01.4 | global macro episodes, it's really wonderful to be back with you in the seat. Amazing to see you, |
... |
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