GM76: Are We Being Deceived by Economic Data? ft. Paul Donovan
Top Traders Unplugged
Niels Kaastrup-Larsen
4.8 • 670 Ratings
🗓️ 11 December 2024
⏱️ 65 minutes
🧾️ Download transcript
Summary
Alan Dunne welcomes Paul Donovan, Chief Economist of UBS Global Wealth Management, to this episode for a thought-provoking discussion on the global economic outlook. Together, they explore the structural challenges facing Europe and whether the current wave of pessimism is overstated. Paul highlights how data mismeasurement contributes to the gap between perception and reality while acknowledging the hurdles for productivity growth in Europe. They also consider whether comparisons between Europe’s economic trajectory and Japan’s stagnation are valid and discuss the prospects for U.S. growth under President Trump. The conversation also examines the recent inflation cycle, the potential effects of new U.S. tariffs on inflation, and the implications for Federal Reserve policy.
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Episode TimeStamps:
02:28 - Introduction to Paul Donovan
06:02 - The state of the European economy
09:19 - The notion of fairness is changing
13:55 - Can a new economic model emerge?
18:54 - Has Europe become Japanified?
22:21 - Should Europe worry about lagging behind on tech?
29:04 - An economic plague in the UK
34:02 - How can economists address the happiness of the people
38:15 - What have the cost of things stayed high?
44:32 - The potential for supply...
Transcript
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| 0:00.0 | People think the Snickers bar is indicative of inflation because they buy it every day. |
| 0:11.0 | And that's also the problem because if you've got it stuck in your mind, |
| 0:15.0 | you know, the Snickers bar used to cost me two euros. |
| 0:18.0 | That's the fair price for a Snickers. And now it costs three euros. And every time |
| 0:22.6 | you buy a Snickers bar, you're thinking the fair price is two euros and I'm paying three. |
| 0:27.6 | And so that constantly irritates and it constantly gives this illusion of inflation. So for 18 months, |
| 0:33.4 | minimum, every time you buy a Snickers bar, you're thinking, oh, inflation's out of control, |
| 0:38.1 | whereas in actual fact, the price has been three euros for the last 18 months. It's just that |
| 0:43.0 | mentally, you've still got a benchmark of two euros stuck in your brain. |
| 0:49.3 | Imagine spending an hour with the world's greatest traders. Imagine learning from their experiences, |
| 0:55.2 | their successes, and their failures. Imagine no more. Welcome to Top Traders Unplugged, the place |
| 1:02.3 | where you can learn from the best hedge fund managers in the world so you can take your manager, |
| 1:07.0 | due diligence, or investment career to the next level. Before we begin today's conversation, |
| 1:12.2 | remember to keep two things in mind. |
| 1:14.2 | All the discussion we'll have about investment performance is about the past, |
| 1:17.9 | and past performance does not guarantee or even infer anything about future performance. |
| 1:22.9 | Also understand that there's a significant risk of financial loss with all investment strategies, |
| 1:27.2 | and you need to request and understand the specific risks from the investment manager about |
| 1:32.1 | their product before you make investment decisions. Here's your host, veteran hedge fund manager, |
| 1:37.8 | Nealz Kostrup Larson. |
| 1:52.2 | Welcome and welcome back to another conversation in our series of episodes that focuses on markets and investing from a global macro perspective. |
| 2:02.5 | This is a series that I not only find incredibly interesting, as well as intellectually challenging, but also very important given where we are in the global economy and the geopolitical cycle. We want to dig deep into the minds of some of the most |
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