4.8 • 670 Ratings
🗓️ 27 November 2024
⏱️ 63 minutes
🧾️ Download transcript
Keith McCullough, Founder and CEO of Hedgeye Risk Management, joins Alan Dunne in this episode for an in-depth look into Keith’s distinctive approach to global macro analysis and tactical trading. The conversation explores Keith’s background as a hedge fund manager and his views on how markets have evolved, especially in relation to option flows. Keith breaks down his four-quadrant framework for macro analysis, explaining how pinpointing the economy’s position within these quadrants is as much an art as it is a science. His framework currently signals continued strength in the US dollar and US equities. A fundamental aspect of Keith’s approach is his respect for market signals and the need for these signals to confirm his macro views. He also shares valuable insights into the behavioural challenges of investing and emphasizes the importance of a disciplined, repeatable process to drive long-term success.
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to [email protected]
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Alan on Twitter.
Follow Keith on Twitter.
Episode TimeStamps:
02:23 - Introduction to Keith McCullough
05:01 - From hedge fund to research
07:29 - Being a retail investor is an insult
09:56 - How McCullough has reacted to the rise of 0DTE options
13:48 - Have stocks become more macro driven?
15:54 - Where are we currently in the 4 quads?
19:22 - The challenge of lag in macro signals
21:26 - McCullough's...
Click on a timestamp to play from that location
0:00.0 | You know, we're in new territory and much different levels. |
0:10.6 | Like I said before, if you're of Mandelbrot school, it's this particular thing that's |
0:16.9 | happening to the deficit, cutting it instead of building it to the mother of all bubbles, |
0:21.7 | you know, at this particular point in cycle time that matters the most. And I think people should be, |
0:26.4 | at least for me, I have to have the humility to understand that I don't know what the hell's going to |
0:30.4 | happen, you know, other than what's already happening. Like I said, the dollar signal to me is the |
0:34.5 | most explicit signal out there. Unless you can tell, show me where the rate of change of their deficit decisions are going |
0:40.1 | to change, then I'm not going to change my position on. |
0:44.5 | Imagine spending an hour with the world's greatest traders. |
0:48.3 | Imagine learning from their experiences, their successes, and their failures. |
0:53.2 | Imagine no more. |
0:56.8 | Welcome to Top Traders Unplugged, |
1:00.5 | the place where you can learn from the best hedge fund managers in the world so you can take your manager due diligence or investment career to the next level. |
1:05.4 | Before we begin today's conversation, |
1:07.3 | remember to keep two things in mind. |
1:09.3 | All the discussion we'll have about investment performance is about the past, and past performance does not guarantee or even infer anything about future performance. Also understand that there's a significant risk of financial loss with all investment strategies, and you need to request and understand the specific risks from the investment manager about their product before |
1:28.2 | you make investment decisions. |
1:30.1 | Here's your host, veteran hedge fund manager, Niels Kostrup Larson. |
1:39.8 | Welcome and welcome back to another conversation in our series of episodes that focuses on markets and investing from a global macro perspective. |
1:48.0 | This is a series that I not only find incredibly interesting as well as intellectually challenging, but also very important given where we are in the global economy and the geopolitical cycle. |
2:00.9 | We want to dig deep into the minds of some of the most prominent experts |
2:04.5 | to help us better understand what this new global macro-driven world may look like. |
... |
Please login to see the full transcript.
Disclaimer: The podcast and artwork embedded on this page are from Niels Kaastrup-Larsen, and are the property of its owner and not affiliated with or endorsed by Tapesearch.
Generated transcripts are the property of Niels Kaastrup-Larsen and are distributed freely under the Fair Use doctrine. Transcripts generated by Tapesearch are not guaranteed to be accurate.
Copyright © Tapesearch 2025.