GM73: Debt, Deficits, and the Road Ahead ft. Jason Furman

Top Traders Unplugged

Niels Kaastrup-Larsen

Business, Business News, Investing, News

4.8 • 670 Ratings

🗓️ 30 October 2024

⏱️ 59 minutes

🔗️ Recording | iTunes | RSS

🧾️ Download transcript

Summary

Jason Furman, Professor of Economics at Harvard and former Chairman of the Council of Economic Advisors under President Obama, joins Alan Dunne in this episode to share his thoughts on the current economic outlook. They explore the recent improvement in the inflation data, whether the Fed is justified in claiming victory in its inflation fight and the likely trajectory for inflation over the next year. On monetary policy, Jason expects further rate cuts from the Fed this year but is sceptical about how much additional easing we may see next year. That ‘s partially because he sees a higher neutral policy rate and partly because high fiscal deficits looks set to remain a feature of the next administration. Looking further ahead Jason offers his thoughts on the longer term growth outlook, the likelihood of an AI-led productivity boom, the pros and cons of active industrial policy and whether persistent fiscal deficits might eventually lead to a debt crisis.

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Episode TimeStamps:

02:10 - Introduction to Jason Furman

04:28 - The state of the economy

04:42 - Is inflation stickier than we thought it would be?

06:01 - Is inflation stickier than we thought it would be?

09:40 - The outlook for inflation

12:34 - A move in the right direction?

14:34 - Is the neutral rate a useful...

Transcript

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0:00.0	Definitely, that's not sustainable.
0:08.4	Definitely the dead is putting upward pressure on interest rates.
0:11.8	But I don't think it's a dire crisis, drop everything to deal with right now when the 10
0:18.6	years around 4% doesn't really send me off, you know, panicking with a need
0:24.7	for an instant adjustment, but at some point something's got to give.
0:31.5	Imagine spending an hour with the world's greatest traders.
0:35.4	Imagine learning from their experiences, their successes,
0:38.1	and their failures. Imagine no more. Welcome to Top Traders Unplugged, the place where you can
0:45.1	learn from the best hedge fund managers in the world so you can take your manager, due
0:49.4	diligence, or investment career to the next level. Before we begin today's conversation,
0:54.5	remember to keep two things in mind.
0:56.5	All the discussion we'll have about investment performance
0:58.8	is about the past,
1:00.2	and past performance does not guarantee
1:02.1	or even infer anything about future performance.
1:05.2	Also understand that there's a significant risk
1:07.3	of financial loss with all investment strategies,
1:09.5	and you need to request and
1:11.2	understand the specific risks from the investment manager about their product before you make
1:15.8	investment decisions.
1:17.3	Here's your host, veteran hedge fund manager, Nealz Kostrup Larson.
1:27.1	Welcome and welcome back to another conversation in our series of episodes that focuses on markets and investing from a global macro perspective.
	...

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