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Top Traders Unplugged

GM70: The State of the Commodity Super Cycle ft. Adam Rozencwajg

Top Traders Unplugged

Niels Kaastrup-Larsen

Business, Business News, Investing, News

4.8670 Ratings

🗓️ 18 September 2024

⏱️ 79 minutes

🧾️ Download transcript

Summary

This week you are in for a real treat, as Adam Rozencwajg rejoins Cem Karsan and me for a deep dive into the latest developments in the Commodity markets. It's been 15 months since Adam last appeared on the show, and he's back to share his updated perspectives on the highly anticipated next Commodity Super Cycle. Adam even unveils a fascinating and little-known fact about what often coincides with the start of a Super Cycle. We also take a closer look at key markets like Gold, Copper, and the entire Energy Complex—topics at the heart of debates surrounding the US Dollar and the Green Transition. Packed with fresh insights and thought-provoking discussions, we hope you will enjoy this conversation.

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Episode TimeStamps:

02:14 - Catching up

05:00 - What has happened since we last spoke?

12:58 - The state of the metal sector

22:06 - Thoughts on positioning in commodity trading

28:41 - Getting the timing right

42:51 - It's all about volatility

44:38 - Playing the long game

47:46 - Are investors positioning wrong?

52:40 - A carry trade bubble

54:29 - Why are many investors bullish on copper?

01:01:12 - Why are copper prices going down?

01:05:13 - Demographics - a bizarre kind of beast

01:08:40 -...

Transcript

Click on a timestamp to play from that location

0:00.0

We firmly think looking at history that this time is going to be no different.

0:12.0

I think we're in the right zip code, as they would say in the U.S., the right neighborhood,

0:17.0

for change in the monetary systems, just like we had in those other times.

0:20.0

And I suspect that that

0:21.3

will be the ultimate catalyst here. And you just look at all these, like you said, these massive

0:27.8

volatility events that we've seen, including, you know, what's happening with the yen, including

0:34.1

what's worried to be happening with the dollar, with the central

0:37.5

banks accumulating gold.

0:39.1

I mean, it strikes me like there has to be a new reordering of things to help alleviate

0:44.0

some of these imbalances that have accrued in valuations today.

0:50.6

Imagine spending an hour with the world's greatest traders.

0:56.3

Imagine learning from their experiences,

1:03.8

their successes, and their failures. Imagine no more. Welcome to Top Traders Unplugged, the place where you can learn from the best hedge fund managers in the world so you can take your manager,

1:08.4

due diligence, or investment career to the next level.

1:11.7

Before we begin today's conversation, remember to keep two things in mind.

1:15.7

All the discussion we'll have about investment performance is about the past,

1:19.3

and past performance does not guarantee or even infer anything about future performance.

1:24.4

Also understand that there's a significant risk of financial loss with all investment strategies, and you need to request and understand the specific performance. Also understand that there's a significant risk of financial loss with all investment

1:28.1

strategies, and you need to request and understand the specific risks from the investment

1:32.8

manager about their product before you make investment decisions. Here's your host,

1:37.6

veteran hedge fund manager, Nealz Kostrup Larson.

1:46.3

Welcome, well, welcome back to another edition of our Global Macro series, where today, as usual,

...

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