GM54: "Weakflation" in 2024 ft. Gregory Peters
Top Traders Unplugged
Niels Kaastrup-Larsen
4.8 • 712 Ratings
🗓️ 27 December 2023
⏱️ 59 minutes
🧾️ Download transcript
Summary
Greg Peters joins Alan Dunne in this episode for a global fixed income perspective on the evolving macro landscape. We hear why “weakflation” may be the most likely scenario for the US economy but that a the risk of recession is three times its typical level. Greg outlines what the secular shifts in the global economy such as the end of the era of secular stagnation, a stagnating China, stickier global inflation and higher return to labour, mean for the global economy and asset markets. We discuss the recent gyrations in then bond market, how the composition of demand for US Treasuries is changing and why Greg is not overly concerned about debt sustainability for the US economy. And we delve into the outlook for emerging markets and why Greg is constructive on the outlook for EM excluding China.
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Episode TimeStamps:
02:42 - Introduction to Gregory Peters
05:15 - What types of portfolios PGIM Fixed Income running?
06:28 - Peters' perspective on the state of global macro
11:44 - Peters' response to the inverted curve
15:30 - Is Peters concerned about the U.S debt?
19:36 - Japanese investors in a tough spot
22:11 - Financial repression and domestic bias
24:11 - The yield is destiny
27:28 - What range are we operating in?
28:43 - Will inflation be stickier than we expect?
33:03 - The impact of a changing globalization
35:42 - Analyzing the poor productivity numbers
38:05 - The longer term outlook of the Chinese economy
42:54 - China as a potential component in a global fixed income portfolio
44:27 - Opportunities in emerging markets
46:47 - Peters' thoughts on the central bank response function
49:13 - How would central banks respond to a worst-case scenario?
51:29 - The possibilities of recession
56:19 - Advice for other investors
57:59 - Thanks for listening
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Transcript
Click on a timestamp to play from that location
| 0:00.0 | I think there's more room to be less hawkish now with inflation closer to their target than where they were a year ago. |
| 0:15.6 | So I do believe that they're willing to have a little more inflation in the system to help |
| 0:24.6 | help the labor market from cratering. |
| 0:28.6 | But that's a real test. |
| 0:30.6 | The question that we often get is, you know, will central banks explicitly change their target? |
| 0:36.6 | And we don't think so. |
| 0:38.1 | We think that would be a really bad idea. |
| 0:41.1 | You know, you can't, like, change the rules of the game midway through, right? |
| 0:46.5 | It doesn't invoke confidence into the institution. |
| 0:49.0 | But I think it's one of those things where they'll allow a little more tolerance than they have historically |
| 0:57.0 | for protection of the labor market. |
| 1:02.8 | Imagine spending an hour with the world's greatest traders. |
| 1:06.4 | Imagine learning from their experiences, their successes, and their failures. Imagine no more! |
| 1:12.6 | Welcome to Top Traders Unplugged, the place where you can learn from the best hedge fund managers in the world, |
| 1:18.6 | so you can take your manager due diligence or investment career to the next level. |
| 1:22.6 | Before we begin today's conversation, remember to keep two things in mind. |
| 1:26.6 | All the discussion we'll have about investment performance is about the past, and past performance |
| 1:31.8 | does not guarantee or even infer anything about future performance. |
| 1:36.1 | Also understand that there's a significant risk of financial loss with all investment |
| 1:39.7 | strategies, and you need to request and understand the specific risks from the investment manager about |
| 1:45.1 | their product before you make investment decisions. |
| 1:48.0 | Here's your host, veteran hedge fund manager, Nealz Kostrup Larson. |
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