GM50: A Century of Disorder ft. Helen Thompson
Top Traders Unplugged
Niels Kaastrup-Larsen
4.8 • 670 Ratings
🗓️ 27 September 2023
⏱️ 62 minutes
🧾️ Download transcript
Summary
Join us for a thought-provoking conversation with Professor Helen Thompson of Cambridge University, author of Disorder: Hard Times in the 21st Century, as we take a big picture perspective on the current global macro landscape. A key focus of Helen’s work is the role of energy markets in understanding global macro developments and we delve into Europe’s energy dependence on Russia. We hear about the factors which enabled Europe avoid an energy shortage in the winter of 2022 but why energy markets remain a risk factor for the Eurozone economy. We discuss the shift towards more proactive industrial policy in the US, what is driving it and how it relates to deglobalization. We also discuss China, its economic challenges and its evolving role in the Middle East and whether the global economy is truly fragmenting into distinct trading blocs. We get Helen’s perspective on the US dollar’s reserve status and why the US’s role in the international monetary order is as strong as ever and get her thoughts on the next year’s US presidential election.
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Episode TimeStamps:
02:36 - Introduction to Helen Thompson
06:31 - Why did she write her book, "Disorder: Hard Times in the 21st Century"?
10:15 - The outlook for Europe's oil and gas dependency
17:23 - A longer-term structural challenge?...
Transcript
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| 0:00.0 | It's been made easier for central banks in the last six months than it was because the more direct inflation pressures from energy were fallen away. |
| 0:18.0 | Now that I think is not to say that they might not come back again. |
| 0:22.4 | And where China is going on gas, and in general, perhaps the states of the Chinese economy |
| 0:29.1 | is going to be like an important part of that. So a weaker China will probably keep that source of inflation at bay, and then that means that we go |
| 0:41.4 | a little bit longer, sometime longer, perhaps, before we run into like, okay, what's the point |
| 0:46.7 | where central banks want to be raising rates, and they really run into a serious risk of |
| 0:52.5 | financial market instability. |
| 0:59.5 | Imagine spending an hour with the world's greatest traders. |
| 1:03.9 | Imagine learning from their experiences, their successes, their failures. |
| 1:05.9 | Imagine no more. |
| 1:11.7 | Welcome to Top Traders Unplugged, the place where you can learn from the best hedge fund managers in the world so you can take your manager, due diligence, or investment career to the next level. |
| 1:17.3 | Before we begin today's conversation, remember to keep two things in mind. |
| 1:21.2 | All the discussion we'll have about investment performance is about the past, and past |
| 1:25.4 | performance does not guarantee or even infer anything |
| 1:28.4 | about future performance. |
| 1:30.0 | Also understand that there's a significant risk of financial loss with all investment strategies, |
| 1:34.6 | and you need to request and understand the specific risks from the investment manager |
| 1:38.8 | about their product before you make investment decisions. |
| 1:42.1 | Here's your host, veteran hedge fund manager, Niels Kostrup Larson. |
| 1:51.8 | Welcome and welcome back to another conversation in our series of episodes that focuses on markets and investing from a global macro perspective. |
| 1:59.9 | This is a series that I not only find incredibly interesting |
| 2:03.6 | as well as intellectually challenging, |
... |
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