GM46: An Emerging Market Boom of Epic Proportion ft. Louis-Vincent Gave
Top Traders Unplugged
Niels Kaastrup-Larsen
4.8 • 712 Ratings
🗓️ 5 July 2023
⏱️ 63 minutes
🧾️ Download transcript
Summary
Today we are joined by Louis-Vincent Gave of Gavekal Research for a fascinating discussion on the key global macro trends impacting markets. Louis outlines his case for why the consensus is wrong to expect a US recession and why he sees accommodative US fiscal policy as a key driver of the economy in the next 1-2 years. We discuss the upside and downside risks to inflation and how weather patterns may be an underappreciated risk to inflation in the next 1-2 years. One of Louis’ key calls is an upbeat outlook on emerging markets, particularly in the middle East and Asia. The recent peace deal between Iran and Saudi Arabia is a key element of this, while the structural trend of de-dollarization and emerging economies increasingly selling goods in their own currency are other elements. We wrap up with an assessment of AI and the economic implications in the medium term.
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Episode TimeStamps:
02:23 - Introduction to Louis Vincent Gave
05:28 - Is the economy starting to crack?
10:40 - When is the recession coming?
13:13 - The outlook for inflation
18:36 - The problem with designification
21:18 - The challenges of Chinese economy
27:56 - Can the Japanese economic situation be compared to China?
31:31 - Looking beyond the U.S and China
36:12 - An epic boom in emerging markets
40:20 - The structural growth in China
43:28 - Middle East joining forces
46:53 - Dealing with the debt
50:43 - Inverted yield curve and the bond market
54:09 - How will AI affect the economy?
59:22 - Good advice and book recommendations
01:02:00 - Thanks for listening
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Transcript
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| 0:00.0 | The de-dollarization of the commodity trade that we're witnessing in real time, the biggest |
| 0:13.0 | macro consequence of that is an emerging market boom of epic proportion. The biggest constraint |
| 0:18.4 | for most emerging markets was accessing dollars. |
| 0:21.4 | And it was a constraint today, but it's also a constraint over the future. |
| 0:26.0 | So you were always reluctant to embark on big infrastructure spending, like let's say India, build a railway. |
| 0:32.4 | Well, you know, if tomorrow you can't buy the iron ore because you've run out of dollars. |
| 0:37.1 | Now, I'm never going to run out of rupees, |
| 0:40.0 | so I'm in good shape. |
| 0:43.2 | Imagine spending an hour with the world's greatest traders. |
| 0:46.9 | Imagine learning from their experiences, |
| 0:49.0 | their successes, and their failures. |
| 0:51.3 | Imagine no more. |
| 0:53.2 | Welcome to Top Traders Unplugged, the place where you can learn |
| 0:56.9 | from the best hedge fund managers in the world so you can take your manager, due diligence, or |
| 1:01.6 | investment career to the next level. Before we begin today's conversation, remember to keep |
| 1:06.6 | two things in mind. All the discussion we'll have about investment performance is about the past, |
| 1:11.8 | and past performance does not guarantee or even infer anything about future performance. Also understand |
| 1:17.4 | that there's a significant risk of financial loss with all investment strategies, and you need to |
| 1:21.9 | request and understand the specific risks from the investment manager about their product |
| 1:26.4 | before you make investment |
| 1:27.7 | decisions. |
| 1:28.9 | Here's your host, veteran hedge fund manager, Niels Kostrup Larson. |
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