GM45: A Geopolitical Mosh Pit ft. Michael Kao
Top Traders Unplugged
Niels Kaastrup-Larsen
4.8 • 712 Ratings
🗓️ 14 June 2023
⏱️ 60 minutes
🧾️ Download transcript
Summary
As has become clear in the past couple of years, the interconnection between Macro Economics and Geo-Politics is stronger today than ever before in our lifetime. And who better to explain this mosh pit than the Ubankaoboy himself, Michael Kao who joins me and Cem Karsan for a fascinating and wide ranging conversation. We cover topics like China's debt problem, Oil and the mistakes the US are making as we speak, OPEC+ as well has hear Michael, who's parents fled from China to Taiwan, describe an potentially "explosive" scenario in which China may well be united with Taiwan that he is hearing from one of his "Uncles" still living in Taiwan.
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Episode TimeStamps:
02:29 - The big macro picture
14:09 - The debt problem in China
20:39 - The fragility of China and the Taiwan conflict
24:57 - Kao's view on supply and demand
31:17 - How does Fed power affect oil?
38:41 - A complicated dynamic
41:54 - Can we actually trust anyone?
45:29 - The shadow banking system and refinancing risk
48:53 - A structural problem
51:59 - Reimagining safe assets
58:27 - Thanks for listening
Copyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
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Transcript
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| 0:00.0 | I'm calling this era an era where we're in a sort of geopolitical mosh pit. |
| 0:13.0 | You know, these different power centers, as you put it, right? |
| 0:16.0 | Whether they are the different central banks of the major economic zones, or even the central bank of oil, |
| 0:22.3 | which we call OPEC Plus, these are all actors acting in their own interests first and foremost. |
| 0:30.2 | And it produces kind of an every man for himself dynamic, which is why I call this geopolitical |
| 0:35.3 | model. |
| 0:36.3 | Imagine spending an hour with the world's greatest traders. which is why I call this geopolitical market. |
| 0:41.2 | Imagine spending an hour with the world's greatest traders. |
| 0:45.7 | Imagine learning from their experiences, their successes, and their failures. |
| 0:47.6 | Imagine no more. |
| 0:54.1 | Welcome to Top Traders Unplugged, the place where you can learn from the best hedge fund managers in the world, so you can |
| 0:54.8 | take your manager, due diligence, or investment career to the next level. Before we begin |
| 0:59.7 | today's conversation, remember to keep two things in mind. All the discussion we'll have about |
| 1:04.4 | investment performance is about the past, and past performance does not guarantee or even infer anything |
| 1:10.1 | about future performance. |
| 1:11.7 | Also understand that there's a significant risk of financial loss with all investment strategies, |
| 1:16.0 | and you need to request and understand the specific risks from the investment manager about their product |
| 1:21.4 | before you make investment decisions. |
| 1:23.8 | Here's your host, veteran hedge fund manager, Niels Kostrup Larson. |
| 1:33.6 | Welcome and welcome back to another edition of our global macro series, where today as |
| 1:37.7 | usual, I'm joined by my co-host, Jim Kazan, as well as our very special guest, Michael |
| 1:41.9 | Kau, to try and make sense of the ever-changing global economy. |
... |
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