GM43: On the Verge of Recession ft. David Rosenberg

Top Traders Unplugged

Niels Kaastrup-Larsen

Business, Business News, Investing, News

4.8 • 670 Ratings

🗓️ 24 May 2023

⏱️ 66 minutes

🔗️ Recording | iTunes | RSS

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Summary

Join us for a thought-provoking conversation with David Rosenberg of Rosenberg Research as we discuss the global macro outlook and why David believes the US economy is on the verge of recession. We examine the parallels between the current economic cycle and past cycles, particularly the 1920s and 1970s, and discuss how past Fed tightening cycles have played out for the economy and asset prices. David lays out his case for why he is sceptical of the narrative that inflation will remain sticky and outlines the key indicators he is monitoring that suggest that the US economy will soon be in recession. We discuss debt, demographics and deglobalization and whether these will inflationary or disinflationary forces over the coming decade.

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Episode TimeStamps:

03:23 - Introduction to David Rosenberg

08:00 - Rosenberg's research process

11:56 - The importance of historical awareness

25:00 - Disruptions in the demand curve

31:16 - Getting the timing right

43:54 - The longer term trajectory

52:58 - Dealing with high debt levels

57:12 - A shift in the political landscape

01:00:56 - Learning more about global macro

01:05:02 - Thanks for listening

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Transcript

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0:00.0	The future is going to be one of a fiscal restraint, and I think it will be global,
0:12.5	and it will be under necessity.
0:14.2	Because coming out of this interest rate shock, you're seeing debt service costs rise in
0:18.0	algebra.
0:18.9	That cuts into program spending. It's going to have brutal
0:22.5	implications for fiscal finances in the future at a time when industry aren't so low anymore.
0:28.3	Now, I think they'll come back down. But this has been a significant shock to the fiscal side
0:34.3	at a time when you have more and more people dropping out of the labor market.
0:38.6	These are high-income people.
0:40.8	You're getting low-income people coming in, not low-income, but younger people.
0:44.9	They're not paying as much taxes.
0:46.9	So I think we're building up to something on the fiscal side that, and this is one of the risks.
0:51.1	One of the risks is that we're going to have a fiscal crisis.
0:53.4	I know it's the boy who cried wolf, okay? But just remember this. In that story, the wolf shows up.
1:01.4	Imagine spending an hour with the world's greatest traders. Imagine learning from their
1:06.2	experiences, their successes, and their failures. Imagine no more. Welcome to Top Traders Unplugged, the place where you can learn from the best hedge fund managers in the world,
1:17.6	so you can take your manager due diligence or investment career to the next level. Before we begin today's
1:23.3	conversation, remember to keep two things in mind. All the discussion we'll have about investment
1:28.0	performance is about the past, and past performance does not guarantee or even infer anything
1:33.3	about future performance. Also understand that there's a significant risk of financial loss with
1:38.0	all investment strategies, and you need to request and understand the specific risks from
1:42.8	the investment manager about their product
	...

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