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Top Traders Unplugged

GM38: Debt, Stagnation and Policy Responses ft. Barry Eichengreen

Top Traders Unplugged

Niels Kaastrup-Larsen

Business, Business News, Investing, News

4.8670 Ratings

🗓️ 5 April 2023

⏱️ 63 minutes

🧾️ Download transcript

Summary

Join us for a thought-provoking conversation with Professor Barry Eichengreen, Professor of Economic and Political Science at University of California, Berkeley as we discuss what we can learn from economic history in the current volatile global macro environment. We discuss the uses and misuses of history and look at what history tells us about the policy response to the current strains in the banking system. We delve into Professor Eichengreen’s work on the long term outlook for the US dollar, the exorbitant privilege that the dollar’s reserve status bestows on the US and whether the Euro and the Chinese Renminbi are becoming credible alternatives to the dollar. We also discuss if rising public sector and private sector debt levels sustainable and whether the global economy has fully emerged from the period of secular stagnation which characterised the last decade.

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Episode TimeStamps:

03:19 - Introduction to Barry Eichengreen

08:17 - A potential misuse of history

11:26 - A lesson forgotten?

14:25 - Are things starting to break?

16:49 - A lesson learned

18:44 - Should we be concerned?

22:19 - Are crises inevitable?

24:32 - Is the dollar under threat?

30:10 - The need for safe assets

36:02 - The state of the Euro

39:39 -...

Transcript

Click on a timestamp to play from that location

0:00.0

I am convinced that banking crises are a party perennial.

0:11.2

We'll never eliminate bank crisis risk unless we eliminate banks.

0:17.7

When we see a bank increasing its deposits and investments by 400% in a period of five years,

0:27.7

that's what Silicon Valley Bank did. That's a reliable leading indicator to my mind of a

0:35.2

likely non-viable business model. Silicon Valley Bank didn't know

0:39.6

what to do with all this money. It didn't know where to park its liquidity. And that

0:46.4

was a warning sign. An interesting issue that we will learn more about with the passage

0:51.9

of time is why the regulators didn't make more of a fuss about

0:57.0

those kind of problems.

1:00.0

Imagine spending an hour with the world's greatest traders.

1:05.0

Imagine learning from their experiences, their successes, and their failures.

1:09.0

Imagine no more. Welcome to Top Traders Unplugged, the place where you can learn from the best hedge fund managers in the world,

1:17.6

so you can take your manager due diligence or investment career to the next level. Before we begin today's

1:23.3

conversation, remember to keep two things in mind. All the discussion we'll have about investment

1:28.0

performance is about the past, and past performance does not guarantee or even infer anything

1:33.3

about future performance. Also understand that there's a significant risk of financial loss with

1:38.0

all investment strategies, and you need to request and understand the specific risks from

1:42.8

the investment manager about their product

1:44.6

before you make investment decisions.

1:47.0

Here's your host, veteran hedge fund manager, Niels Kostrup Larson.

1:56.8

Welcome and welcome back to another conversation in our series of episodes that focuses on markets and investing from a global macro perspective.

2:04.9

This is a series that I not only find incredibly interesting as well as intellectually challenging, but also very important given where we are in the global economy and the geopolitical cycle.

...

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