GM33: Drilling into the Oil Market ft. Rory Johnston
Top Traders Unplugged
Niels Kaastrup-Larsen
4.8 • 670 Ratings
🗓️ 8 February 2023
⏱️ 67 minutes
🧾️ Download transcript
Summary
Today we are joined by Rory Johnston, founder of Commodity Context, a physical commodities research firm based in Toronto, Canada. We talk about Rory’s in-depth research focused on the oil sector, as well as the current narratives impacting the price of oil right now. We discuss his deep dives into the workings of the oil industry, focused on adding a broader perspective to price assumptions and market fluctuations. From Russia’s invasion of Ukraine to China’s Covid lockdown, Rory shares his reflections on diverse market responses to geopolitical events around the world. Is there going to be a big energy demand from China going forward? What is it going to take to stabilize oil prices? How does inflation factor in? Join us on this fascinating exploration of the role oil plays, and the variables that can change the trajectory of the energy market.
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Episode TimeStamps:
02:31 - Introduction to Rory Johnston and Commodity Context
07:15 - Are people over-fixated on data?
09:04 - Is Geopolitical analysis useless?
16:43 - Making assumptions
19:38 - The challenges with data
28:36 - Indicators of volatility
32:26 - Quantifying the fundamental value
37:02 - Having an edge in oil
45:27 - Understanding the CRT Report
49:17 - Oil price - a play on the...
Transcript
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| 0:00.0 | It's important to kind of ground yourself in why you think these things are happening together. |
| 0:11.5 | Because I think that informs a bit of your view of like, well, is that going to persist? |
| 0:15.7 | Is some of this going to unwind? Which side is going to unwind? |
| 0:18.7 | I think it just gives you a bit of like tactical awareness of the space. |
| 0:21.5 | I think a lot of people just passively kind of consume this data. I think it's always important to |
| 0:26.0 | kind of critically kind of assess why those things are happening together. |
| 0:32.8 | Imagine spending an hour with the world's greatest traders. Imagine learning from their experiences, |
| 0:38.7 | their successes, and their failures. Imagine no more. Welcome to Top Traders Unplugged, the place |
| 0:45.8 | where you can learn from the best hedge fund managers in the world so you can take your manager, |
| 0:50.5 | due diligence, or investment career to the next level. Before we begin today's conversation, remember to keep two things in mind. |
| 0:57.7 | All the discussion we'll have about investment performance is about the past, |
| 1:01.4 | and past performance does not guarantee or even infer anything about future performance. |
| 1:06.4 | Also understand that there's a significant risk of financial loss with all investment |
| 1:10.1 | strategies, and you need to request and understand the specific risks from the investment manager about |
| 1:15.5 | their product before you make investment decisions. Here's your host, veteran hedge fund manager |
| 1:20.9 | Niels Kostrup Larson. |
| 1:37.0 | Welcome, welcome back to another conversation in our series of episodes that focuses on markets and investing from a global macro perspective. |
| 1:46.0 | This is a series that I not only find incredibly interesting as well as intellectually challenging, but also very important given where we are in the global economy and geopolitical cycle. |
| 1:50.3 | We want to dig deep into the minds of some of the most prominent experts to help us better |
| 1:54.8 | understand what this new global macro-driven world may look like, and we want to explore |
| 2:00.3 | their perspectives on a host of game-changing |
| 2:02.5 | issues and hopefully dig out nuances in their work through meaningful conversations. |
... |
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