GM27: Central Banks were Warned about their Failed Policies ft. William White
Top Traders Unplugged
Niels Kaastrup-Larsen
4.8 • 712 Ratings
🗓️ 2 November 2022
⏱️ 87 minutes
🧾️ Download transcript
Summary
Today, we are joined by William White, Economist, Policy Advisor and Policy Maker who worked at the OECD, BIS & Bank of Canada, for a conversation on monetary policy and how it can negatively impact the economy. We discuss the unintended consequences of ultra-easy monetary policies, what has caused the current rebound in inflation and why we have gone from price stability to specific inflation rate targeting. We also discuss how Central Banks have handled inflation and supply shocks, both historically and recently, through monetary policies, how the current debt problem poses a threat to the economy and how it might be solved, the psychological perspective behind economical theory and why the financial conditions might have been too easy, financial and physical dominance and why they are not good for a non inflationary future. Lastly, we discuss the crisis from a European perspective, why the Dollar might not be stable in a future crisis and much more.
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Episode TimeStamps:
00:00 - Intro
03:12 - Introduction to William White
04:38 - Discussing White’s paper about monetary policies
10:32 - What has driven the inflation to this point?
23:05 - Inflation targeting - a great succes?
33:18 - Are we seeing the right policy?
40:33 - The debt problem
52:24 - Has central bank credibility been undermined?
58:18 - Seduced by their own billions
01:03:33 - A weaponization of the dollar
01:10:12 - What about Europe?
01:19:03 - White’s recommendations for aspiring economists
01:24:39 - Key takeaways from Niels
Resources discussed in this Episode:
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Transcript
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| 0:00.0 | These systems always break down. |
| 0:08.0 | And the lesson is be prepared. |
| 0:12.0 | And when you think about 2009, whether in Britain or the Europe or the United States, |
| 0:17.0 | people were totally unprepared for what happened. You know, did you have adequate |
| 0:22.3 | deposit insurance? Did you have, were you playing war games between the central bank and the |
| 0:27.8 | treasury about who does what, when, you know? All of this kind of stuff just in many countries |
| 0:33.8 | was not there. Do you have adequate debt resolution procedures? I mean, all sorts of studies, the OECD, the BIS, the G30, you know, we don't have adequate |
| 0:43.3 | procedures for resolving debt problems, either at the corporate level or the household level or |
| 0:48.3 | the sovereign level. So be prepared, we're not. |
| 0:52.3 | Imagine spending an hour with the world's greatest traders. |
| 0:57.0 | Imagine learning from their experiences, their successes, and their failures. |
| 1:02.0 | Imagine no more. |
| 1:04.0 | Welcome to Top Traders Unplugged, the place where you can learn from the best hedge fund managers in the world |
| 1:10.0 | so you can take your manager due diligence or investment career to the next level. |
| 1:14.9 | Before we begin today's conversation, remember to keep two things in mind. |
| 1:18.9 | All the discussion we'll have about investment performance is about the past, and past performance does not guarantee or even infer anything about future performance. |
| 1:27.6 | Also understand that there's a significant risk of financial loss with all investment strategies, |
| 1:31.9 | and you need to request and understand the specific risks from the investment manager about their product |
| 1:37.3 | before you make investment decisions. |
| 1:39.7 | Here's your host, veteran hedge fund manager, Niels Kostrup Larson. |
| 1:56.9 | Welcome and welcome back to another conversation in our series of episodes that focuses on markets and investing from a global macro perspective. |
| 2:02.5 | This is a series that I not only find incredibly interesting, as well as intellectually challenging, but also very important given where we are in the global economy and the geopolitical |
... |
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