GM22: Investing through a Fourth Turning ft. Niels Kaastrup-Larsen & Cem Karsan

Top Traders Unplugged

Niels Kaastrup-Larsen

Business, Business News, Investing, News

4.8 • 670 Ratings

🗓️ 24 August 2022

⏱️ 75 minutes

🔗️ Recording | iTunes | RSS

🧾️ Download transcript

Summary

Today, Cem Karsan and I reflect on previous conversations with guests on the Global Macro series and how they have developed us as investors. We also discuss the historical framework of the Fed and their role and power in the economy, how 40 years of monetary policy and technological revolution have caused historic inequality and how recessions have been handled throughout history. Additionally, we address the consequences of ultra low interest rates and high inflation and why we might see a loss of credibility in the Fed going forward, the importance of finding an edge in your investment strategy. Lastly, we discuss the strength of the dollar, how investors should position themselves in the wake of a Fourth Turning and much more.

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Episode TimeStamps:

00:00 - Intro

02:54 - Looking back on previous GM guests and how they impacted our thinking

09:17 - Thoughts on the Fed and a historical perspective

21:11 - How much power and control does the Fed actually have?

31:02 - Low interest rates... a bubble maker?

40:03 - The inverted yield curve...a sign?

49:26 - Using volatility as a guide for equity markets

59:14 - What happens to the dollar?

01:04:13 - What should investors be considering at this point?

01:12:24 - Thanks for listening

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PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your...

Transcript

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0:00.0	These are places where money is going to be flowing and it's at the mouth of the river.
0:11.0	You know, go to the mouth of the river and invest in those businesses.
0:15.0	So I think there's just like any other time of change, tremendous opportunity.
0:20.0	This is not like, oh, markets are going to be tough,
0:22.6	like coal up in a quarter and keep your money in cash.
0:25.6	No, I think this is a time of an inflection point in markets,
0:28.6	and I think you're going to see some very huge opportunities
0:31.6	in terms of active management being in the right place,
0:33.6	long the right place, and short, you know, the right place.
0:36.6	I think those are ultimately, you know, the right place. I think those are
0:37.7	ultimately, you know, those tremendous opportunities. Imagine spending an hour with the world's
0:44.4	greatest traders. Imagine learning from their experiences, their successes, and their failures.
0:50.3	Imagine no more. Welcome to Top Traders Unplugged, the place where you can learn from the best hedge fund managers in the world, so you can take your manager, due diligence, or investment career to the next level.
1:03.0	Before we begin today's conversation, remember to keep two things in mind.
1:07.0	All the discussion we'll have about investment performance is about the past, and past performance does not guarantee or even infer anything about future performance.
1:15.7	Also understand that there's a significant risk of financial loss with all investment strategies, and you need to request and understand the specific risks from the investment manager about their product before you make investment decisions.
1:27.8	Here's your host, veteran hedge fund manager, Niels Kastrup Larson.
1:37.9	Welcome or welcome back to this week's edition of the Global Macro Series with Jim Kassang and I,
1:42.1	Neil's Kastaf Larsassen, where today we wanted to
1:44.6	create a different episode compared to our usual format, namely without a guest, but instead a
1:50.1	conversation just between Jim and I. For those of you who are regular listeners to the Global
1:55.3	Macro Series, you know that both Gem and I have concerns about where the world and the financial
	...

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